The 6-furlong handicap at Nottingham has a strong favourite in the form of the James Fanshawe trained Arctic Angel. This horse was beaten by just a narrow margin on his handicap debut at Kempton and has the best form in the race. However, he is encountering the turf for the first time and whether the horse is effective on grass is up for debate. Looking down the betting market, Soaring Spirit looks like the value bet for the Dean Ivory yard who excel with sprinters. He is worth a play at double figure odds.
Dean Ivory’s runner didn’t show much in his first two starts this season, but improved last time out at Brighton finishing 4th of 7, but showing some form. The horse has been dropped from a mark of 74 down to 65 and as such he is able to race back in Class 6 company which will definitely help. When in form, the horse sits close to the pace or leads, and he can be difficult to pass. Soaring Spirit is available at +900 with Bet365.
Soaring Spirits has been off for 23 days, which is the perfect time off the track for this runner. When off for 2-4 weeks, the horse is 5/25 with a further 3 places, compared to 2/25 when off for all over breaks. The horse comes into his own in the summer and is 4/9 in the months of June and July. Dean Ivory runners competing over less than 8 furlongs, off for 8 weeks or less and racing in May-December do very well; 140/851 (16%) for £44 LSP, with an A/E of -385 .
Roller is a horse we are fond of here at SBO Racing and after supporting Mick Easterby’s runner last time out, we saw the horse very well backed in the market and he was just touched off, finishing second at Ripon over 8 furlongs. With just 7 days off the track, the son of Rail Link has fitness on his side and he should be difficult to beat at Haydock. A consistent performer, he races close to the pace and Haydock is a speed track, so it should suit. He has been installed as the market leader, but could yet be backed further, and he represents value at odds of +275 with Ladbrokes and Coral.
Attitude is big component of a successful race horse. There are many runners who have all the ability in the world, but they do not put it all in, or have quirks when hitting the front. Roller is a horse with a great attitude and constitution. He has had a total of 8 starts and has won twice, finished second three times and has finished third once. Rarely is he out of the frame. In his last three starts, Roller has recorded RPR’s of 89, 90 and 92, so there has been steady progress with each run. The horse has shown he handles fast ground as well as surfaces with a bit of cut in it, and there are many positives to this horse’s chances. He is due to go up 2lbs for the Ripon race, but the new mark hasn’t kicked in yet, so he is effectively well in.
Mick Easterby has a very strong record when he had a favourite last time out who was beaten. It is not very often than the wily Yorkshireman leaves his money behind twice, and his last time out beaten favourites are 71/378 (19%) for £17 LSP, with the runners scoring 27% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. This figure jumps to a 33% strike rate when they are turned out within 7 days of their previous efforts.
15:55 Nottingham – Soaring Spirit to win
Thursday 15th June
19:40 Haydock – Roller to win
Thursday 15th June