A frustrating day yesterday, as our selection at Kempton was backed off the boards, we had the favourite beaten, but then another well handicapped horse came home stronger. Onwards and upwards and there are two very strongly fancied runners on Thursday.
2.50 Haydock – Tanaasub
Tanaasub wasn’t the strongest in the market on her comeback run at Ripon in a weak maiden despite having the best form in the race, but Robert Cowell’s filly defied the lack of market support and won with plenty in hand. Due to the weak nature of that contest, she has only been allotted a handicap mark of 67 – a rating on which she can surely build.
Tanaasub ran a really good race over course and distance last year on good to soft ground. Understandably went off favourite for a maiden at Doncaster next time out, but really struggled on the ground and despite leading early, she really tired late in the day and was beaten 11 lengths. Was put away after that run for the winter and returned at Ripon in June. Made all on comeback over 6 furlongs, showing blistering speed, never seeing another rival. As mentioned, a mark of 67 really could underestimate Robert Cowell’s filly’s ability and she has already proven herself over the course and over the trip. Joe Fanning is a master from the front and he should be able to dictate matters.
Bet – 1 point win Tanaasub at 163/1002.63+1631.631.63-0.61 with Bet365
5.50 Newcastle – Reckless Wave Reckless Wave is a last time out winner for the Ed Walker stable and there is the strong possibility that this horse can follow up. The 3 year old filly has the services of the impressive George Wood who really is an up and coming star and the way she won last time out suggests that this course and distances will generate further improvement. Bet365 and BetVictor are currently offering odds of 2/13.00+2002.002.00-0.50 and there is a very good chance that the filly will start shorter come race time.
Ed Walker knows the time of day, and he gave Reckless Wave three runs in over 8 furlongs back in 2015 when the horse was a 2 year old. There was definitely promise in those starts, but the filly didn’t appear to be anything special and showed signs of being one paced. She was allotted a handicap mark of 55 and reappeared over 10 furlongs this June at Beverley. Wasn’t that strong in the market (went off at odds of 11/112.00+110011.0011.00-0.09 ), but showed definite improvement, finishing a close up 3rd of 13. Was denied a clear run that day and when given daylight, the Cape Cross filly finished with gusto. That run put Reckless Wave closer to match fitness next time out and she went off a joint-favourite at Lingfield over 10 furlongs. Stayed on strongly to score narrowly that day and probably won in spite of the track, which doesn’t really play to the strengths of strong staying, galloping types.
As a result of her victory at Lingfield, Reckless Wave has been raised to a mark of 60. That still entitles the filly to contest in 0-60 company, and she really looks a great bet. Newcastle has a long, galloping home straight and is far from undulating, so she should be afforded an uninterrupted run. The competition isn’t stiff and it would be no surprise to see this one win easily.
Bet – 1 point win Reckless Wave at 2/13.00+2002.002.00-0.50 with BetVictor and Bet365
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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