Up to Musselburgh we head for the first of two selections on Wednesday, and we go with one of our favourites here at Sports Betting Online in the form of the Alistair Whillans trained Ralphy Boy. The likeable son of Acclamation is in great form and has recorded a win and a place in his last two starts. Has been off for just a week, but that should be viewed as a positive when it comes to this yard.
This race is being contested over 7 furlongs, which represents a drop in trip from Ralphy Boy’s last two starts (both were over 8 furlongs). That shouldn’t worry punters too much as the horse has been successful over this trip before. What is really appealing about Whillans’ 6 year old is his course record – 3 wins and 2 places from 9 starts is nothing to be sniffed at. The horse loves to go from the front and will be ridden aggressively now back in trip. Alistair Whillans runners off for 2 weeks or less have a great record; 40/264 (15.15%) for £41.43 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.48.
Bookmakers have made Lina Perratt’s last time out winner Dark Crystal favourite. She has won two out of her last three, but has been hiked up in the weights and in an open contest, she doesn’t look to be value. At odds of 5/16.00+5005.005.00-0.20, Ralphy Boy should give us a great run for our money, and we fully expect him to go off a point or two shorter by race time.
7.55 Kempton – Fresh Kingdom
Fresh Kingdom has bombed out in his last two starts, but there appears to be excuses for both of those runs, and back on his favoured all-weather surface, he could well bounce back to form. Odds of 4/15.00+4004.004.00-0.25 look generous in a 6 runner contest.
James Fanshawe’s son of Dubawi is 3 from 4 on the all-weather and has also won twice at Kempton. His last two runs have been on soft ground on turf, and he was virtually pulled up last time out. Questions about his well-being have to be asked about the horse after that run, but those concerns are factored into his odds.
There is plenty of stamina in the pedigree and the step up to 2 miles could well eek out some more improvement. James Fanshawe does very well on the all-weather at this time of year; his runners from June-August are 45/215 (20.93%) for £17.06 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.36.
Gavlar is the favourite, and rightly so. Under this 7lb claiming jockey, he scored over course and distance last week. Carries a 6lb penalty for that success and this race looks tougher, but he is in good form and proven under conditions, so makes a solid market leader. At the odds though, we like Fresh Kingdom.
Tips Summary (26th August)
4.00 Musselburgh – Ralphy Boy – 5/16.00+5005.005.00-0.20Ladbrokes
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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