6.15 Newcastle – Racing Radio
Newcastle – the king of the all-weather courses. A long and fair home straight ensuring that the best horse wins. The Northumbria based course was heavily criticised for replacing the turf with the all-weather surface in recent years, but the turn out for the races has spoken volumes about its success. As well as local trainers, the track has attracted raiders from the south as well. At Newcastle on Tuesday, there is a tasty looking 2 year old nursery over 7 furlongs, and our selection is an unexposed runner who could be much better than his mark in time to come. The pick is the David Barron trained Racing Radio who makes his nursery debut. A mark of 56 is far from insurmountable and the switch of surface and move out of maiden company is likely to have a positive impact on his performance. The son of Dandy Man is available at odds of +550 with BetVictor which seem to be more than fair.
The market typically speaks volumes when it comes to David Barron debutants and not much was expected of Racing Radio on debut, as he went off at double figure odds when seeing the racecourse for the first time at Beverly. Not much ability was shown that day as the horse finished stone last, beaten 18 lengths. Stepped forward a little on the next start at Redcar without exhibiting more talent again, but the third start at Redcar was a little more encouraging, as the juvenile finished fourth in a seller at Ripon, recording an RPR of 54. The way that the horse finished at Ripon suggested a step up in trip would yield further improvement, and the horses pedigree supports that assertion.
David Barron has a very strong record on the all-weather and when his runners transfer from another surface to the artificial conditions, they are profitable; 28/116 (24%) for £44 LSP. The horses score 35% more often than they are entitled to based on odds.
7.15 Newcastle – Henpecked
A record of 0/10 on the all-weather wouldn’t be the most inspiring statistic when one is searching for a horse to back on the, err well, all-weather. However, delve a little deeper and the Alistair Whillans’ trained Henpecked isn’t quite so hopeless as her record suggests – in fact she has had four seconds and two thirds on the artificial surfaces. The horse isn’t the most frequent winner, but she is versatile when it comes to distance and surface and the daughter of Footstepsinthesand is very consistent. In an open race, the bookmakers have priced up the 7-year-old at odds of +550 with BetVictor and Bet365.
Henpecked has run at Newcastle regularly and the horse likes it at the course. She went close over course and distance last November and has finished second another two times over shorter distances since then. Last time out at Hamilton the horse hit the front two furlongs out over 11 furlongs at Hamilton on soft ground, before she was eventually passed by the easy winner. Are there doubts about Henpecked resolution in the finish? Perhaps so, but she should be moving very smoothly a couple of furlongs out and is likely to be in the mix at the finish.
Alistair Whillans horses who are turned out within two weeks of their previous run (17.0 or shorter) do well; 68/372 (18%) for £116 LSP. The horses win 50% more than they should and Henpecked is a nice each-way bet.
18:15 Newcastle – Racing Radio to win
Tuesday 12th September
19:15 Newcastle – Henpecked each way
Tuesday 12th September