5.15 Carlisle – Privileged
Roger Varian’s 3 year old Exceed and Excel filly looks to have an outstanding chance in the all girls handicap at Carlisle. Thrice raced, she could be starting handicap life on a workable mark of 73, and the competition does not look too strong.
After an inauspicious start to her racing career (finishing 14th of 17 at Newbury), Varian’s runner got the hand of things, finishing placed on her next two starts. Was behind a well backed Richard Hannon horse last time out who has since gone on to destroy a field in Class 4 company, and the form of that run at Goodwood looks especially strong.
Roger Varian 3 year olds in 3 year old+ handicap company, who have been off for less than 8 weeks and did not win last time out, have a very good record; 32/103 (31.07%) for £72.56 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.61. Even if she replicated the run from last time out, Varian’s filly should be hard to beat.
7.50 Kempton – Fresh Kingdom
There may be 14 runners in the Class 4 0-85 11f contest at Kempton on Wednesday night, but there is a strong favourite in the form of Fresh Kingdom, and James Fanshawe’s runner has an excellent chance of taking the spoils. A relatively lightly raced 4 year old, the son of Dubawi made an encouraging seasonal reappearance at Haydock, finishing a solid 3rd, posting his best RPR to date in the process.
Being by Dubawi, the switch back to the AW should suit. Has already won on artificial surfaces over both 10f and 12f and this intermediate trip may suit best of all. Only gave best late in the day at Haydock and wasn’t overly strong in the market, suggesting that there was plenty left to work on. James Fanshawe has a great record on the all-weather at this time of year – he is 43/199 (21.61%) with runners from June-August, for a £41.33 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.39.
There are other last time out winners in the field, most notably the Peter Hedger trained Silver Dixie who won an amateur riders contest last time out. Quickened up nicely the last day, but that was a 7 runner field on turf over 10f and conditions are much different today.
Tips Summary (24th June)
7.50 Kempton – Fresh Kingdom Win – +350 – WilliamHill
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