Postbag to deliver at Leicester

2015-04-10

4.25 Leicester – Postbag

Postbag is the selection in this wide open fillies maiden at Leicester. Although there are a few imponderables surrounding Henry Candy’s filly, the bet is made due to the odds of 7/1 8.00 +700 7.00 7.00 -0.14  which have to be considered value.

Daughter of Three Valleys ran an encouraging race on debut at Kempton over 8f on the all-weather when an unfancied outsider. Stayed on steadily to finish third and much better can be expected this time around. Returns from 149 days off the track and Henry Candy 3 year old maiden runners who have had one start and have been off for 90+ days are 13/57 (22.8%) for £77 LSP and an A/E of 2.10. The straight 7f should be perfect, and although the soft ground could be a negative based on breeding, there is enough juice in the price to take a chance.

Hawkin is top rated on official figures and Racing Post Ratings, but she is more exposed than most and isn’t guaranteed to handle the ground. The ‘sexy’ horse in the field is Journey from the John Gosden stable. Should get further than this in time, and mediocre first start at Lingfield on turf can be forgiven as that course is very sharp. May well be more to come this year, but there is no value in the odds.

Candy is 4/21 with his 3 year olds at Leicester in recent seasons and she could be shorter than 7/1 8.00 +700 7.00 7.00 -0.14  come race time.

9.20 Wolverhampton – Galilee Chapel

A rare foray into Class 6 company for the second selection, which comes in the form of the Alistair Whillans runner Galilee Chapel. Horse’s penultimate run over course and distance makes this Baltic King gelding of interest in a very ordinary contest.

Horse disappointed last time out after starting slowly, but seems to prefer artificial surfaces and has two wins and two places from 11 starts on the all-weather (including a course and distance victory). Likely to be ridden midfield/more prominently this time out and the fact that he is turned out quickly is encouraging – trainers runners reappearing at the track within two weeks of previous start are 37/247 (15%) for £37 LSP and an A/E of 1.51.

Is available at odds of 8/1 9.00 +800 8.00 8.00 -0.13  and at those prices, could be an each way bet. Favourite is Suni Dancer, but her form is no better than Galilee Chapel, and market support behind the latter, would again not be a surprise.

Tips Summary

Postbag Win – 4.25 Leicester –  7/1 8.00 +700 7.00 7.00 -0.14  – Bet365

Galilee Chapel EW – 9.20 Wolverhampton –  8/1 9.00 +800 8.00 8.00 -0.13  – SkyBet