The 5 furlong maiden at Yarmouth looks a very winnable affair on Tuesday, and although there is a strong market leader in the form of Bequia, we look elsewhere for our selection. Making her stable debut for the shrewd and skilled Robert Cowell yard, Ocelot could have more to give this year, and in a race where there are only a few live contenders, she looks to be a decent each-way shout against some mostly limited rivals.
As mentioned, Ocelot moved from Tim Easterby to Robert Cowell at the back end of last season. Tim Easterby has the occasional sharp 2 year old, but his runners are typically slow to learn at 2, with the intention of them improving with age. Ocelot had 6 runs as a juvenile and although she didn’t really go forward, the filly tended to be relatively consistent with her form. Raced primarily on slower ground, but there isn’t anything in the pedigree to suggest that this one should struggle with underfoot conditions. Robert Cowell specialises with sprinters, and although this horse has something to find on form, there is a good chance that she can improve this year. She can start by taking this race at +275 with SkyBet.
There a couple of compelling statistics that support Ocelot’s chance of going close in this contest. Robert Cowell runners who are making their stable debut and have been off the track for over 90 days have a great record; 10/89 (11.24%) for £26 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.25. Furthermore, Cowell’s runners in general who have been off for 90+ days and are returning in January-July have a fantastic record; 28/174 (16%) for £126 LSP, with the horses winning 65% more than they are entitled to based on their odds.
The market leader Bequia has the best form in the race, but that was on her debut at Newmarket. She regressed the next time out at Yarmouth, maybe not handling the course or underfoot conditions. If she returns to the form of her first run, she will be hard to beat, but naturally the horse comes with risks attached at odds of +100 .
There is plenty to like about Paddy A’s profile and in another open and winnable contest, Philip McBride’s runner is the selection. He is available at attractive odds of +400 with SkyBet and Bet365 and the horse could well be an improver this term.
Paddy A was unfortunately one of those horses on the flat who has managed to fall, and that tumble came on his debut, so the horse was entitled to be mentally scared from the incident. However, after the debut run, McBride’s horse managed to run two creditable races before disappointing. Was subsequently gelded and ran poorly, but after a winter break, the son of Holy Roman Emperor showed significant improvement, finishing fourth at odds of +3300 . The yard know the time of day in the betting ring, so the fact that the horse wasn’t backed, suggests that they left plenty to work on at home. Was held up in rear early at Kempton and finished with a flourish, giving definite signs of promise.
That run was the horse’s first time at the track for around 4 months, so improvement can definitely be expected. James Doyle has been booked and stall 3 is a nice draw from which Paddy A can drop in and track the pace. There aren’t too many hard luck stories at Chelmsford due to the wide nature of the track and after getting cover early, we hope that the horse can explode into life in the straight.
The market leader is the last time out winner Metronomic. Richard Hannon’s horse also benefited from a recent gelding operation and carries a 6lb penalty, but this contest is tougher than the one he was victorious in and although he has a decent chance of going close, the odds are not attractive.
14:50 Yarmouth – Ocelot to win
Tuesday 2nd May
18:40 Chelmsford – Paddy A to win
Tuesday 2nd May
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