Oriental Relation to Return to Winning Ways at Southwell

19th-january

1.45 Southwell – Thello

The racing on Tuesday is far from the most inspirational, but there are a couple of horses who look to represent some betting value, and the first of those is the Nigel Tinkler trained Thello. The 4 year old Arcano gelding has won back to back races, and has a very solid chance of landing the hat trick over a course and distance where he has already proved himself.

Thello showed very little in his first 3 starts, and was allotted a mark of just 48 for his handicap debut. He failed to show much on that first foray outside maiden company, and was a well beaten 7th in Class 7 company. Surprisingly, went off just 8.0 for his 5th start at Southwell over a mile, and won that race decisively. Was raised to a mark of 51, and followed up at Chelmsford, winning more cosily than the half-length margin suggests. He has been raised to just 56, and improving horses at the low levels often take these hikes in the weights in their stride. From stall 4 he is likely to sit handy, just tracking the leader, and is likely to be hold onto until the final furlong.

The competition is weak and with everything seeming to be in Thello’s favour, he rates a decent bet at odds of +275 .

3.25 Southwell – Oriental Relation

Oriental Relation is a veteran on the all-weather for a 5 year old, and with James Given doing well with his runners returning to the track quickly, he could provide some value against Scott Dixon’s favourite Crosse Fire.

The son of Tagula has a clear preference for artificial surfaces. He is 0/13 on the turf, but comes to life when bouncing off the polytrack or fibresand, as a record of 6/28 will attest to. Has been competing in better company than this and has been running himself into form. Would perhaps be best over 5.5 furlongs, and as a result, is likely to be ridden aggressively. Was turned out just 4 days ago, and showed he was in good form, when finishing 3rd at Wolverhampton. Wore the visor that day and retains that particular headgear. Odds of +400 seem generous.

Crosse Fire is much respected, and Scott Dixon’s 4 year old is chasing the hat trick. Won with authority over course and distance in Class 5 company last time out, but this is significantly tougher and faces competition for the lead.

Tips Summary (19th January)

1.45 Southwell – Thello – +275 Bet365, WilliamHill

3.25 Southwell – Oriental Relation – +400 Bet365, WilliamHill, Ladbrokes

 

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