New Caledonia to Continue Upwards Trend at Newbury
Eric Roberts 2016-09-16 in Horse Racing Tips
2.10 Newbury – Dimitre
Here at Sports Betting Online, we don’t often delve into maiden races to derive our selections. With many unraced horses, and potential improvers, it can often be difficult to be dogmatic about the young horses, especially in the 2 year old contests. We are, however, willing to make an exception, and think that the Henry Candy trained Dimitre has a great chance. A once raced son of Showcasing, the horse is in excellent hands, with the colt’s wily trainer excelling with sprinters. After a promising debut run at long odds, there is likely to be plenty of improvement this time up, and with a strong market leader in the contest, his odds are appealing. At 9/25.50+4504.504.50-0.22 , Dimitre looks a good each-way bet.
The market is usually a good indicator of the likely performance of the runners from the Candy stable, and there wasn’t too much money from connections for Dimitre on debut at Salisbury. In a 13 runner field, the son of Showcasing showed his inexperience early, jinking around, and appearing not to know what is job is. However, the penny definitely dropped towards the end of the contest, and the horse stayed on with some vigour and plenty of promise. That experience is highly likely to have improved Dimitre 10lbs or more, and he could end up being a decent animal.
The market is made by the well-bred Executive Force. William Haggas is a shrewd operator and knows the time of day with his horses, and he has this Sepoy colt entered in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes over 7 furlongs at Newmarket at the end of the season. That entry suggests that the horse has demonstrated a high level of ability on the gallops at home, and unsurprisingly, the bookmakers have installed him as a strong favourite. While he may be different gravy to the opposition, he hasn’t raced competitively yet, and there is the potential that he could be undone by the lack of experience.
Mark Johnston most definitely isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, and he does often voice some deeply flawed opinions (Graham Cunningham’s words). However, one thing that cannot be levelled at the Middleham trainer, is that he can’t train staying 3 year old horses. Because he can – and he does it very well. His charge New Caledonia is likely to enter the Class 2 12 furlong handicap at Newbury as the market leader, and the unexposed 3 year old has plenty going for him. His odds should be closer to 2/13.00+2002.002.00-0.50 , but punters with a fast trigger finger can currently get 3/14.00+3003.003.00-0.33 with a few firms.
New Caledonia spent the majority of his 2 year old campaign racing at 7 furlongs, extending beyond the mile on just one occasion. The Cape Cross colt showed a solid level of ability, winning once and finishing second on two occasions. Many thought that there would be more to come as the horse matured, with his pedigree screaming that he would improve when stepped up in trip. New Caledonia didn’t win in his first three starts this term, but when stepped up to 12 furlongs last time out, the 3 year old obliged at odds of 12/113.00+120012.0012.00-0.08 . That victory came at Ascot off a mark of 88, and Johnston’s runner won with plenty in hand. With just 9 starts to his name, the horse is unexposed both in generally and at the trip, and he could break into triple figures soon. A progressive, and likeable type.
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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