3.55 Stratford – Nachi Falls
Outside of the big flat meeting at York, there are some interesting jumps fixtures, and although low grade, Stratford has some intriguing races. One of them is the 2mile 6 ½ furlong Novices’ Chase, which only had five runners, but it features two last time out winners. One of them is the Nigel Hawke trained Nachi Falls, and the 4-year-old New Approach gelding is the pick. Hawke’s inmate put in a scintillating performance last time out to score with plenty of authority, and the stable has a good record with their runners who try to back up their victories.
Nachi Falls had one start for the Godolphin stable back in 2015 but didn’t cut much ice and was quickly moved on from the yard, with Nigel Hawke picking up the horse. The purpose was clearly to go over timber and Nachi Falls was thrown straight into hurdling. He picked up the new discipline very quickly, finishing third on debut before racking up a hat trick of successes. Those victories came on autumn ground which was sound, and once the horse encountered softer conditions over the winter, his form tailed off. Connections decided that a switch back to the turf and the all-weather would reignite Nachi Falls’ form and he did indeed return to form without scoring. After one run in a novice chase at Market Rasen in June (that did not end well), the horse went off at +2000 last time out at Worcester. The step up in trip and experience over the larger obstacles served Hawke’s horse well and he ran out a facile winner, scoring by 12 lengths. Nachi Falls is unexposed over the longer trips and over fences and is up just 7lbs for his success last time out. He can be backed at +175 with Bet365.
Nigel Hawke is a wily trainer and knows how to strike when the iron is hot. His 4-year-old+ last time out winners are very profitable; 30/107 (28%) for £35 LSP and they win on average 55% more often than they are entitled to based on odds.
4.15 York – Aljezeera
Aljezeera is a dark horse hailing from the Luca Cumani yard, and this Frankel filly tackles a very strong field in the 12 furlong British EBF & Sir Henry Cecil Galtres Stakes (Listed Race) for fillies and mares at York Racecourse. Luca Cumani’s filly has only seen the racecourse twice and has only achieved an official mark of 88, but there is cause to believe she could be very smart this year, and a chance is taken on the horse at generous odds. Those odds are made appealing by the presence of a hot favourite in the field. Mori is from the red hot Sir Michael Stoute yard and this filly who is also sired by Frankel, has an official rating of 110, some 22lbs superior to our selection. However, the odds reflect that and the value isn’t there with the favourite.
Aljezeera made her debut last August at Doncaster, and she was very strongly backed on debut, which is fairly unusual for the Cumani yard and suggested they had something a little special on their hands. After travelling strongly behind the leaders, the filly quickly put the race to bed scoring by two and half lengths. She made her seasonal reappearance at Newbury in listed company over 10 furlongs on soft ground and her jockey made plenty of use of the filly. She became outpaced but plugged on to finish a respectable third. From the way the horse was ridden, it appears stamina is her strong suit, and Cumani’s horse is likely to have benefited from that pipe opener. Cumani’s horses off for 90+ days from April onwards do well; 88/387 (23%) for £70 LSP and +800 with Ladbrokes and Bet365 seems fair.
15:55 Stratford – Nachi Falls to win
Thursday 24th August
16:15 York – Aljezeera to win
Thursday 24th August