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2.40 Ascot – Archie McKellar
Ralph Beckett is a thoughtful handler and one who excels with his string. The Hampshire based trainer operates at one of the highest strike rates in the training fraternity and he places horses very well. Beckett is adept at bringing along 2-year olds steadily so that they can perform to their best over an extended period of time and he looks to have a potentially talented horse in the form of Archie McKellar. The son of Archipenko posted an eye-catching performance on debut at Salisbury and with that contest under his belt, there could be plenty more to come this time around.
With some sexy unraced types in the contests, we have been given a juicy price about the horse and bettors can get onboard at 7/1 8.00 +700 7.00 7.00 -0.14 with BetVictor.
Archie McKellar was fairly prominent in the market on debut at Salisbury and he ran a race suggesting the experience would be hugely beneficial. Held up early, Pat Dobbs made his move on the colt in the final few furlongs and he ran on strongly without getting to the principles, eventually finishing third. The style of the horse is likely to be suited by Ascot which places emphasis on stamina and he should be finishing with some gusto up the hill. The visual impression of the horse being a strong stayer is supported by his pedigree. Sire Archipenko’s runners usually have bundles of stamina and that perception is borne out by the statistics; his 2-year-old performers competing over 7 furlongs + are 31/163 (19%) for £70 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.55. Archie McKellar is the value against the sexy runners.
2.50 Newcastle – Naaeebb
There may be more than one stable now sporting the famous Royal Blue silks of Godolphin, but there is only one daddy, and his name is Saeed Bin Suroor. The trainer from the Middle East has long called the UK home has been training winners at the highest level for decades. On Friday he sends maiden Naaeebb to Newcastle, hoping that the son of Lonhro can break his duck at the third time of asking. There are plenty of 3 year olds in opposition who boast solid form, but none of them look stand out and Naaeebb should really be able to step forward on his first two runs and get off the mark here. He can be supported to do so at odds of 9/4 3.25 +225 2.25 2.25 -0.44 with Ladbrokes and Coral.
There were strong market vibes for Naaeebb on his racecourse debut. The horse showed definite signs of greenness early on and was in rear being niggled. Made some headway displaying ability but was in the end soundly beaten. Despite posting just an okay rating on debut, Naaeebb went into his second run at Thirsk as a hot favourite. This was a little surprising as he was dropping to 7 furlongs on a sharp course, and the lack of speed had already been apparent at Haydock on debut. The horse made some late gains. Naaeebb switches to the all-weather and steps back up to 8 furlongs and both should suit. Newcastle has a long, flat, galloping home straight and this will favour Bin Suroor’s runner’s style.
They clearly have some good all-weather gallops in Newmarket at the Bin Suroor stable, as his horses thrive on the artificial surfaces. When they are having their first start on the all-weather after having previously scored on turf, the results are impressive; 115/317 (36%) for £84 LSP, with the horses scoring 30% more regularly than they are entitled to based on odds.
14:40 Ascot – Archie McKellar to win
Friday 8th September
Odds: 7/1 8.00 +700 7.00 7.00 -0.14
14:50 Newcastle – Naaeebb to win
Friday 8th September
Odds: 9/4 3.25 +225 2.25 2.25 -0.44
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