2.40 Goodwood – Mt Augustus
There are some nice maiden races at Goodwood on Tuesday and we focus our attention on the 8-furlong Peter Willett Maiden Stakes for our first bet. The longer maidens are starting to be more frequent at this time of year and that allows the more backwards types who will come into their own over middle distances next year, to compete and have a chance of scoring.
The betting is wide open for this contest at Goodwood and there are a number of interesting horses in the field, with some eye-catching pedigrees of the newcomers. Experience can play a big roll with these juveniles and Henry Candy’s young horse Mt Augustus made a very promising impression on debut when finishing fourth at Sandown and the son of Champs Elysees can be expected to step forward significantly from that run. He has been installed as the market principle but despite that, seems good value at odds of +400 with Bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral.
Most of Henry Candy’s 2-year olds are not fully wound up on their first racecourse appearance and sometimes, his juveniles will have not ever had the hand break fully let off at home. Mt Augustus made his debut in a warm looking Sandown maiden and acquitted himself very well. Was in touch but as the pace quickened, the horse seemed a little green and didn’t immediately know what was expected of him. Stayed on encouragingly on ground that was probably as soft as he would want it, and the horse went into a few notebooks.
With Candy’s 2 year olds often being a little clueless on debut, it comes as no surprise that they step forward significantly when visiting the racecourse for the second time. The results when his horses are turned out within 2-6 weeks of their debut run is impressive; 26/124 (21%) for £59 LSP, with Candy’s runners scoring 50% more regularly than they are anticipated to based on the odds. This horse could be a decent performer, especially on faster ground.
6.20 Kempton – Ptarmigan Ridge
When you have a hot favourite, especially a hot favourite who has never run before, there are usually some good each-way betting opportunities. That especially rings true when there are a number of horses in the same race with limited abilities or average breeding. The 6.20 at Kempton is a maiden which features a very interesting horse from the Jeremy Noseda stable – a Frankel filly due to be ridden by Ryan Moore. The horse has been installed at odds on in the overnight markets which is usually what happens with sexy newcomers from the Noseda stable. But they don’t all win. Furthermore, they create value in the other runs in the field. We like the look of the James Fanshawe trained Ptarmigan Ridge. A thrice raced son of Kyllachy, the horse has showed decent if unspectacular form so far, but the switch to the all-weather and the flat track is likely to play to his strengths. He can be supported each-way at odds of +350 with Ladbrokes and Coral.
Ptarmigan Ridge made his debut at Doncaster on heavy ground and went very close, finishing with gusto. Followed that run when a beaten favourite at the same track and suffered the same fate last time out at Lingfield on the turf, getting outpaced before staying on. He clearly shows connections something at home and has posted good figures on the track, but there could potentially be question marks about the horse’s attitude. With that being said, the son of Kyllachy ran to an RPR of 76 last time out which was his best yet and suggests he is progressing. Would benefit from being ridden handy from stall 12 and is likely to be finishing strongly.
Fanshawe’s runners who competed on the turf last time out and are switching to the all-weather are very successful; 84/358 (23%) for £114 LSP. We are willing to give Ptarmigan Ridge one more chance in terms of his attitude and the horse should make the frame and could potentially win.
14:40 Goodwood – Mt Augustus to win
Tuesday 5th September
18:20 Kempton – Ptarmigan Ridge to win
Tuesday 5th September