Monsieur Chevalier to Finish Strongly at Wolverhampton

15th-july

2.20 Wolverhampton – Monsieur Chevalier

Monsieur Chevalier may be the outsider in the betting in the 2:20 7 furlong handicap at Wolverhampton, but he is by no means without a chance in an open looking contest. The former classy son of Chevalier was a course winner on penultimate start, and will appreciate the switch back to the all-weather after a disappointing run on turf last time out.

As well as good back form, this horse has two strong stats in its favour. Firstly is James Given’s record at the time of year on artificial surfaces; he is 36/211 (17.06%) with all-weather runners from May-August, for a £96.96 LSP and an A/E of 1.57. Secondly, sire Chevalier has a great record on the all-weather, especially when his offspring ran on turf last time out; 25/142 (17.61%) for £58.16, giving an LSP of 2.06 and an A/E of 2.06.

Has been running over further recently, but the drop in trip shouldn’t inconvenience given that he used to race in much better contests than this over 5/6 furlongs earlier in career. Should be finishing strongly after sitting midfield and could be overpriced.

3.55 Beverley – Windforpower

Windforpower has been running consistently recently, and he looks a little overpriced at odds of +1200 . At that price, he represents a good each-way bet and could even win.

He might have scored 10 times in his career, but Tracy Waggott’s runner only ever does enough. He has never won by more than half a length, and keeps a bit in reserve for himself. Ran with credit in a Class 4 contest at Catterick last time out and this stiffer track and slightly more testing track should play into his hands.

Tends to sit midfield and travels smoothly into his races. Has the benefit of a good draw in stall 2 and should be able to get the requisite cover and pace required to show his true colours. May have raced less than a week ago but Tracy Waggott has a superb record when turning her horses out within 7 days; 36/213 (16.90%) for £61.88 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.50.

The favourite is El Viento, a Richard Fahey trained runner who went very close over course and distance last time out. Was recently a better class animal than these and is justifiably favourite, but hasn’t won in a couple of years, and this is competitive.

Tips Summary (28th July)

2.20 Wolverhampton – Monsieur Chevalier E/W – +1100  Bet365, BetVictor

3.55 Beverley – Windforpower E/W – +1200  Bet365, SkyBet

We also advise a small E/W double on both selections – Bet365

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