For the first time at SBO, we are selecting two horses in a race, as both appear to offer some value at their current odds. Both Millennium Falcon, and Mr Lupton look to have upside on paper.
Mr Lupton is from the Richard Fahey yard, who are prolific with their first time out 2 year olds, especially over the minimum distance of 5 furlongs. Fahey is 62/285 (21.75%) with first time out 2 year olds over 5f for £202.34 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.62 – a truly fantastic record. Furthermore the horse’s sire is 17/117 (14.53%) for £26.45 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.89, so the fact that this unraced juvenile has been installed as a 5/23.50+2502.502.50-0.40 market leader comes as no shock. Has a fair draw in stall 5 and has to be a percentage call bet.
Millennium Falcon was relatively to the fore of the market on debut and although she only ran a modest race, it would be no surprise if there was significant improvement on her second start. Karl Burke’s 2 year olds tend to learn a tonne from their debut run and they are 51/258 (19.77%) second time out, producing a £127.93 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.63.
Ultimately in this race, there only appears to be four horses with a chance of success. Tim Easterby has one of the runners in Bobby’s Babe (trainer has a terrible record with first time out 2 year olds) and the only other real danger looks to be David Brown’s Sing Something, who ran just a fair race on debut.
3.20 Thirsk – Foreign Diplomat
Foreign Diplomat looks to have a good chance in an uncompetitive heat. Horse is returning from a 199 day absence into a 3 year old maiden, and although William Haggas’ runner was a beaten favourite last two starts, could well have improved over the winter.
William Haggas 3 year old maidens returning from a 150+ day absence are 54/180 (30%) for a £53 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.23. Has a fair draw in stall 6 and at least hasn’t disappointed recently like market rival Akeed Champion.
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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