Millennium Falcon and Mr Lupton thirsty at Thirsk
2.10 Thirsk – Millennium Falcon; Mr Lupton
Mr Lupton is from the Richard Fahey yard, who are prolific with their first time out 2 year olds, especially over the minimum distance of 5 furlongs. Fahey is 62/285 (21.75%) with first time out 2 year olds over 5f for £202.34 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.62 – a truly fantastic record. Furthermore the horse’s sire is 17/117 (14.53%) for £26.45 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.89, so the fact that this unraced juvenile has been installed as a 3.50Bet €100 to win €3505/2Bet £100 to win £350+250Bet $100 to win $3502.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$3502.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp350-0.4000Bet RM100 to win RM350 market leader comes as no shock. Has a fair draw in stall 5 and has to be a percentage call bet.
Millennium Falcon was relatively to the fore of the market on debut and although she only ran a modest race, it would be no surprise if there was significant improvement on her second start. Karl Burke’s 2 year olds tend to learn a tonne from their debut run and they are 51/258 (19.77%) second time out, producing a £127.93 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.63.
Ultimately in this race, there only appears to be four horses with a chance of success. Tim Easterby has one of the runners in Bobby’s Babe (trainer has a terrible record with first time out 2 year olds) and the only other real danger looks to be David Brown’s Sing Something, who ran just a fair race on debut.
3.20 Thirsk – Foreign Diplomat
Foreign Diplomat looks to have a good chance in an uncompetitive heat. Horse is returning from a 199 day absence into a 3 year old maiden, and although William Haggas’ runner was a beaten favourite last two starts, could well have improved over the winter.
William Haggas 3 year old maidens returning from a 150+ day absence are 54/180 (30%) for a £53 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.23. Has a fair draw in stall 6 and at least hasn’t disappointed recently like market rival Akeed Champion.
Tips Summary (2nd May)
2.10 Thirsk – Millennium Falcon Win – 3.50Bet €100 to win €3505/2Bet £100 to win £350+250Bet $100 to win $3502.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$3502.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp350-0.4000Bet RM100 to win RM350 – Bet365
2.10 Thirsk – Mr Lupton Win – 5.00Bet €100 to win €5004/1Bet £100 to win £500+400Bet $100 to win $5004.00Bet HK$100 to win HK$5004.00Bet Rp100 to win Rp500-0.2500Bet RM100 to win RM500 – Bet365
3.20 Thirsk – Foreign Diplomat Win – 2.50Bet €100 to win €2503/2Bet £100 to win £250+150Bet $100 to win $2501.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$2501.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp250-0.6667Bet RM100 to win RM250 – Bet365
- Bobby’s Babe
- Foreign Diplomat
- Millennium Falcon
- Mr Lupton
- William Haggas