2.10 Thirsk – Millennium Falcon; Mr Lupton
Mr Lupton is from the Richard Fahey yard, who are prolific with their first time out 2 year olds, especially over the minimum distance of 5 furlongs. Fahey is 62/285 (21.75%) with first time out 2 year olds over 5f for £202.34 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.62 – a truly fantastic record. Furthermore the horse’s sire is 17/117 (14.53%) for £26.45 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.89, so the fact that this unraced juvenile has been installed as a +250 market leader comes as no shock. Has a fair draw in stall 5 and has to be a percentage call bet.
Millennium Falcon was relatively to the fore of the market on debut and although she only ran a modest race, it would be no surprise if there was significant improvement on her second start. Karl Burke’s 2 year olds tend to learn a tonne from their debut run and they are 51/258 (19.77%) second time out, producing a £127.93 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.63.
Ultimately in this race, there only appears to be four horses with a chance of success. Tim Easterby has one of the runners in Bobby’s Babe (trainer has a terrible record with first time out 2 year olds) and the only other real danger looks to be David Brown’s Sing Something, who ran just a fair race on debut.
3.20 Thirsk – Foreign Diplomat
Foreign Diplomat looks to have a good chance in an uncompetitive heat. Horse is returning from a 199 day absence into a 3 year old maiden, and although William Haggas’ runner was a beaten favourite last two starts, could well have improved over the winter.
William Haggas 3 year old maidens returning from a 150+ day absence are 54/180 (30%) for a £53 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.23. Has a fair draw in stall 6 and at least hasn’t disappointed recently like market rival Akeed Champion.
Tips Summary (2nd May)
3.20 Thirsk – Foreign Diplomat Win – +150 – Bet365
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