The betting game is about getting value, not necessarily getting winners. If you back 12 losers and one big winner, you are making a very healthy profit. Here at SBO Racing we look for selections that offer value, whether that be a favourite that is still overpriced by the bookmakers, or an outsider that should be a few points shorter. Today we have two horses at different price points, but both represent betting value.
The bigger priced of our selections is the Chris Wall Ataman. The 5 year old son of Sholokhov runs in the ultra competitive 10 furlong Class 5 handicap at Sandown racecourse, and he has as good a chance as any of being successful. Chris Wall is a very smart individual and after his horse finished second as a beaten favourite last time out, the Newmarket trainer will be seeking compensation. Ataman has had a three week break and should be spot on for this run.
Ataman started his career for the powerful Roger Charlton stable, showing a decent level of form, placing on his first four runs. Although he was going close, Charlton perhaps thought that the horse was a little un-genuine or was lacking concentration, and he had Ataman gelded. Following that gelding operation the horse left the yard and joined Chris Wall. The first several starts for the Wall yard did not indicate that the horse had improved for having his crown jewels removed, and although he threw in the odd good run, last year his form was mostly patchy.
Following the winter break, Ataman returned at Pontefract and finished down the field, but the run was not devoid of promise, as he was in rear early and had to challenge wide into the straight. On the back of that effort, the horse went to Lingfield and was well backed, eventually finishing second. He looked to lack a turn of foot that day at Lingfield over the sharp course and a switch to a more galloping track at Sandown should definitely suit.
Chris Wall horses who started their last run as favourite and were beaten have a very good record next time they see a racecourse; 95/410 (23%) for £130 LSP, with the horses winning 40% more often than they should based on odds. Ataman typically likes to sit midfield and at odds of +900 with BetVictor he is a good bet to break the duck.
Second selection is the Gosden banker So Mi Dar. We supported this progressive filly on her last run only for Gosden to pull the horse out, and she has another excellent opportunity to get this season off to a winning start in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes, and can be backed at -110 with Coral, William Hill and Ladbrokes.
So Mi Dar won her first 4 starts and improved her form with every run, recording a best RPR of 118. Went to France for the final start of her season last year and didn’t get a clear run, eventually finishing third. With better luck, she would be 5 from 5 and could really be a superstar this season. The opposition are no pushovers, but they lack the star quality of the Gosden horse, and the Newmarket maestro has clearly been careful about picking his races for this filly, as she has been withdrawn more than once.
Gosden has a fantastic record when his female horses remain in training as 4 year olds – it is usually indicative of their class, as otherwise they are often sent off to be covered. His 4 year old females are 47/182 (26%) for £109 LSP, with the runners scoring 46% more often than they are entitled to. These are really strong stats and this horse should show her ability on Thursday night.
18:00 Sandown – Ataman to win
Thursday 25th May
19:35 Sandown – So Mi Dar to win
Thursday 25th May