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3.35 Goodwood – So Mi Dar
The 10 furlongs Nassau Stakes is a Group 1 affair on Thursday at Goodwood, and it pits the highly impressive 3-year-old Winter against the classy 4-year-old So Mi Dar. Winter is the market leader as she has very strong recent form and she has shown herself as the outstanding miler of her generation, but she has to step up 2 furlongs on rain softened ground and she potentially faces a horse who could be her match in So Mi Dar. The latter has been kept in training as a 4-year-old by John Gosden, and she has had her scheduled comeback scratched a few times, but now Gosden has found the perfect opportunity for his filly to get back to winning ways.
So Mi Dar won her solitary start back in autumn of 2015. She returned off a break in April of 2016 and scored on soft ground at Epsom. Improved again at York and then scored in a listed contest at Yarmouth on ground that was probably faster than expected. The filly went to France to win her Group 1 at the end of her 3-year-old career, but the horse experienced a less than perfect passage through and the race turned into a sprint which didn’t suit. Gosden only tends to keep his really high class 4-year-old females in training and it is a good sign that So Mi Dar is running.
There are two strong statistics in So Mi Dar’s favour. John Gosden’s 4-year-old+ last time out winners are very profitable; 55/195 (28%) for £86 LSP, with the horses scoring 40% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. Furthermore, John Gosden 4-year-old females in general are definitely worth following in; 49/188 (26%) for £110 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.47. Winter is likely to have the pace but we hope So Mi Dar can outstay O’Brien’s horse. She can be supported at 7/2 4.50 +350 3.50 3.50 -0.29 with Bet365 and William Hill which seems more than fair.
3.55 Nottingham – Badenscoth
Badenscoth was a comprehensive winner last time out on the all-weather and Dean Ivory’s 3-year-old has the potential to step forward again and double up, this time on turf at Nottingham. The son of Foxwedge is not the market leader, as Hughie Morrison has a horse who is considered by many to be ahead of his mark, but that gives us some value, as Badenscoth has been priced up at odds of 5/1 6.00 +500 5.00 5.00 -0.20 with Coral and Bet365. He has to be backed at those prices.
Dean Ivory is a shrewd trainer, and he has done well with Badenscoth. The horse has had 9 lifetime starts. The horse had been held up and had run creditably in a number of starts, scoring once. However, a switch to more positive tactics last time out seemed to work the oracle, and despite being impeded early, the horse scored by nearly 4 lengths. Was rated 73 before that run and his reassessed mark will be 81, so Ivory has got the 3-year-old out under a 6lb penalty, leaving him 2lbs well in. The horse has previously gone close on ground with some ease in so conditions should be fine.
Ivory does very well with his 3-year olds in 3-year-old+ company when racing over less than 10 furlongs; 23/120 (19%) for £72 LSP, with the horses scoring 61% more often than they should have done based on odds.
15:35 Goodwood – So Mi Dar to win
Thursday 3rd August
Odds: 7/2 4.50 +350 3.50 3.50 -0.29
15:55 Nottingham – Badenscoth to win
Thursday 3rd August
Odds: 5/1 6.00 +500 5.00 5.00 -0.20
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