6.50 Nottingham – Melodious
David Elsworth’s 3 year old filly could be value at odds of +500 in this open looking maiden.
Daughter of Cape Cross showed very little on racecourse debut at Newmarket, but stepped up markedly on that effort at the second time of asking, finishing second at Kempton over 7f. Was put away for the winter, and like many of her rivals, returns from an extended absence. That shouldn’t be too much of a concern, as David Elsworth is 19/163 (11.66%) with his 3 year old maiden runners off for 6+ weeks, giving a LSP of £62.98 and an A/E of 1.23.
Breeding suggests that the step up in trip should really suit and she should also be a better horse this year. Sire and dam trends also suggest that fast ground would be preferable, so hopefully the rain holds off until later in the evening. The Elsworth yard aren’t shy of hitting the betting ring if they fancy one, so it would be no surprise if there were to be support for the daughter of Cape Cross.
The favourite comes in the form of Stella Etoile, however Richard Fahey has a terrible record with his second time out 3 year olds so we’re taking the value option with Melodious.
8.25 Nottingham – Master Zephyr
Roger Charlton’s 3 year old son of Shirocco ran a fine race on seasonal reappearance when just behind a Mark Johnston runner. The front two pulled 11 lengths clear and the form of that race appears solid – the horse that beat the Johnston runner in its previous start, went on to follow up in a stronger contest at Leicester next time out.
Master Zephyr went off favourite that day, and his promising run should be marked up further by the fact that Roger Charlton handicappers off for 90+ days are just 16/190 (8.42%), giving a loss of £-42.77 and an A/E of just 0.62. They do much better second time back and improvement can be expected. Granted, the horse has been hiked up 7lbs for the Bath run, but with a better jockey up, and race fitness on his side, there is good cause to think that rise in the weights can be overcome. Has stall 2 and is likely to be held up, coming fast and late.
Tips Summary (8th May)
6.50 Nottingham – Melodious Win – +500 – PaddyPower
8.25 Nottingham – Master Zephyr Win – +300 – Bet365
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