A small profit to start the week as our strong selection scored by the narrowest of margins. On to Wednesday, and we have two bets who will give SBO Racing followers a good run for their money.
Seafarer is a little bit of a gamble, as this promising gelding was found to have a heart issue after really disappointing last time out, but Marcus Tregoning wouldn’t bring the horse back to the track unless he was confident that he is healthy enough to run. He can be backed at attractive odds and if Tregoning’s son of Henrythenavigator is back to the form of his solitary success, he could trouble the market principles.
Seafarer started his career over 6 furlongs and ran a satisfactory race, and followed that effort up next time out at Salisbury, winning by ½ length. Despite the narrow margin, the horse scored with more in hand than the bare margin suggested and marked himself down as a horse to follow. Was strong in the market but beaten out of sight next time out, as the horse experienced a fibrillating heart. Has been off the track for 292 days since and has surely been given expert care in that time. Marcus Tregoning does very well with his handicappers off the track for 6+ weeks; 42/232 (18%) for £59 LSP, with the horses winning 64% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. At odds of +1200 with Bet365, Seafarer is worth the risk.
Master Archer may be the most exposed horse in the line-up in the 12 furlong 3 year old maiden at Kempton, but the horse has an excellent chance of going very close and in our opinion, he should be priced up as the market leader. James Fanshawe’s runner has already produced some solid form figures and there are reasons to believe that son of Mastercraftsman can step forward on the back of a mini break. Available at odds of +400 , we believe the horse has a great chance and one of his rivals will need to run to a mark of 80+ in order to score here.
James Fanshawe has a fantastic record at Kempton on the all-weather and he introduced Master Archer in a 7 furlong maiden last November. The horse was outpaced early and was in rear throughout, with his greenness and lack of speed reducing in the gelding finishing 11 lengths off the winner. Stepped up to 8 furlongs next time out and the increased distance combined with experience generated some improvement, with the horse recording an RPR of 68. Was gelded after that run and given 3 months off the track. Came back at Windsor over 10 furlongs and shaped with a deal of promise, finding trouble in running before finishing with a flourish. Ran a similar race next time at Doncaster, again experiencing trouble in running (the ground was perhaps a little fast that day).
There are plenty of statistics to support Master Archer’s claims. James Fanshawe’s all-weather runners in June and July have a great strike rate; 43/179 (24%) for £80 LSP, with the representatives scoring 62% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. Furthermore, Fanshawe’s 3 year old maidens off for 43-90 days are very successful; 12/50 (24%) for £20 LSP, giving an A/E of -278 . Finally, the Newmarket handlers runners who raced on turf last time out and are switching to turf do very well; 83/350 (24%) for £116 LSP, with the horses winning 50% more often than they are entitled to.
The step up in trip should suit, and while there are undoubtedly some promising horses in opposition, they also all have slight question marks over their heads, and Master Archer is the bet at the odds.
15:10 Yarmouth – Seafarer to win
Wednesday 14th June
19:10 Kempton – Master Archer to win
Wednesday 14th June