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George Baker is a trainer who is held dear in the SBO Racing team’s hearts. The eloquently spoken Etonian lacks any ego, attitude or sense of entitlement despite his privileged upbringing. As well as being a ‘jolly nice’ fellow, he is also an astute acing trainer who has progressed through the training ranks in double quick time. There are certain conditions under which Baker excels, and one of them is when he brings his handicappers back from mini breaks. In the 7 furlong handicap at Leicester, he is represented by Mamillus and although the bookmakers have not missed Baker’s entry (he has been installed as favourite), the price on offer still seems generous. We are going in strong with the Made In Chelsea Mafia’s entry.
Mamillus started his career back in 2015 and Windsor, running a very promising race on debut, eventually filling the second placed berth after showing lots ability. Was off until the following year and understandably, expectations were high for the horse’s second start, but the soft ground seemed not to suit. Bounced back on his third start, winning in emphatic fashion over 7 furlongs at Salisbury back on fast ground. Hacked up that day by just over 3 lengths, proving his talent. Stepped up in class and showed very little on next two starts, prompting connections to rest the horse and give him a gelding operation. The snip seemed to work as Mamillus returned at Leicester (over today’s course and distance), finishing a close up 4th of 18 in a Class 4 handicap. The race split into two groups and Mamillus won his contest on the near side. Interestingly, the handicapper decided to drop Baker’s horse 2lbs for that effort, which in our book, leaves him well in.
As mentioned, George Baker does very well when his handicappers have a mini break; 34/228 (15%) for £70 LSP. His horses win 31% more regularly than they are entitled to based on odds. Mamillus relishes fast ground and has already proved he handles the course, so rates a strong bet at 11/4 3.75 +275 2.75 2.75 -0.36 with William Hill and BetVictor to pop out and sit handily before going on to win.
While Mamillus is undoubtedly our stronger bet of the evening at Leicester, one horse does appeal to us at double figure odds. Rebel Heart comes into the 5 furlong handicap with recent form figures of 660 which would hardly inspire bettors to think she is in rude health, but there are reasons to think that Bill Turner’s sprinter can improve on her recent figures and outrun her odds. She can currently be backed at 12/1 13.00 +1200 12.00 12.00 -0.08 with BetVictor and Bet365 (Best Odds Guaranteed) and is worth a poke.
Rebel Heart didn’t cut much ice on her first four career starts, but then went on to score in the first-time visor on her fifth run at Chepstow, showing good early pace and a determined attitude in the finish. Placed next time out on fast ground but has since struggled to make an impact, well beaten on her last two starts. Those efforts were over 6 and 7 furlongs on ground with cut in it, and to us, the horse is a sprinter, so the conditions definitely didn’t suit. A drop back to 5 furlongs at Leicester (which is a galloping track) will be perfect for Turner’s runner, and he has the services of useful 5lb claimer Ryan While. Bill Turner has a very good record with his runners competing over 8 furlongs or less, when they are turned out within 2 weeks; 63/416 (15%) for £46 LSP, with the horses scoring 36% more often than they are entitled to based on odds.
We would ideally prefer just a good surface as Kyllachy off-spring often like a little cut in the ground, but at the odds, Rebel Heart is worth backing.
20:10 Leicester – Mamillus to win
Saturday 17th June
Odds: 11/4 3.75 +275 2.75 2.75 -0.36
21:10 Leicester – Rebel Heart to win
Saturday 17th June
Odds: 12/1 13.00 +1200 12.00 12.00 -0.08
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