If the team at SBO Racing ever get to the dizzy heights of being able to afford to buy a racehorse, there is a good chance we would have it with the shrewd and sophisticated David Barron. The North Yorkshire based trainer gets the best out of his horses and his runners regularly outperform their odds. In an open looking contest, he has Logi, a 3 year old gelding by Kodiac. This speedster was a beaten favourite last time out and drops in class to take on 0-75 company.
Logi was with Richard Hannon and the horse went off the boil towards the end of last season. Left the yard and joined David Barron, winning in facile fashion after being backed off the boards on his first start for the stable at Wolverhampton. Hasn’t recaptured that form in his last two starts, but the races haven’t been run to suit. The 6 furlong trip on a straight course should play into his hands, and the horse is likely to be held up early and come through late.
David Barron horses who drop in class have a particularly good record; when they ran in a Class 4 contest or higher last time out and are dropping to Class 5, the horses are 31/180 (17%) for £35 LSP, with the runners winning 38% more often than they should do based on odds. There are a few unexposed runners in the line-up, but at +350 with Ladbrokes and Coral, Logi is the bet.
Burguillos hails from the Alan King yard – a stable we like very much with their flat runners, but one we tend to ignore over jumps. This horse has been off since October, but returns to the track with a favourites’ chance, and the bookmakers agree, Bet365, Ladbrokes and BetVictor installing the 4 year old colt as the +200 market leader. If he returns back to the track fit, and we expect him to, then the horse should be closer to +150 , and therefore he represents value.
Burguillos only made his debut last May, and the horse had 7 starts over the course of the season, winning once and placing a further 5 times. The horse was only out of the frame when running over an inadequate trip of 7 furlongs. He finished third and second on last two starts over 10 furlongs, and that appears to be his trip. Recorded RPR’s of 88 and 89 in last two runs which would be good enough to win this. Bettors can expect natural improvement, with a winter on Burguillos’ back and he could well make up into a decent middle distance prospect this year. Alan King’s runners on the flat returning from an absence of 6+ weeks have a very profitable record; 40/285 (14%) for £61 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.47 and that inspires further confidence in our selection. Horse is likely to sit midfield and will try to get some cover. Should go very close.
16:00 Ayr – Logi to win
Tuesday 9th May