It’s Saturday and that means one thing – high quality racing, and lots of it. Goodwood have some terrific races in store this Cinco De Mayo weekend, and the highlight of those contests appears to be the 1 mile, Listed contest for fillies and mares. There is a certain trainer who absolutely excels with the fairer sex, and that is the bowler hat wearing, eloquent talking don of Newmarket, John Gosden (or Johnny G to his close circle). His 4 year old daughter of Dubawi, Laugh Aloud, is the market leader for the contest and justifiably so. She showed nothing but improvement last season, and despite just an ordinary comeback run at Kempton, looks to be the one to be with.
Laugh Aloud was definitely not a precocious type, and took her time, not winning until her fourth start at the racecourse. Gosden isn’t one to rush his horses, especially with the fillies, and after getting off the mark, she improved with each start last year, with her season culminating in a facile success at Newmarket, where the horse recorded an RPR of 111. For her comeback run this season, she was odds on in the early markets and we put up the horse as a good bet. However, the market really spoke and suggested that the filly needed the run – she drifted from -110 out to +175 and ran accordingly, leading for most of the way before fading late in the day. That run will have blown away the cobwebs, and furthermore the return to turf should stimulate more improvement, as she has shown her best form on grass.
John Gosden has an unrivalled record with his 4 year old females; 46/179 (26%) for £108 LSP, with the horses winning on average 47% more often than they should based on odds. The horse is likely to pop out and try and make all. She is currently available at odds of +225 with Bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral and that looks generous.
It is rare that we will venture to Ireland for a bet, and even rarer that we will find our selection in a maiden at one of the less prestigious tracks. However, the Jim Bolger trained Treaty Of Vienna stands out as a horse who really should be odds on, and on his second start back after a winter break, the son of New Approach should be able to dispatch what is, in reality, limited opposition. He can be backed at +110 with Bet365 and that price is unlikely to last.
Treaty Of Vienna ran just a moderate race on debut last September at the Curragh, finishing 4th of 8, beaten 11 ½ lengths. That debut effort came over 7 furlongs and while the bare figures were not that inspiring, there was definitely some promise that can be gleaned from the effort. The horse sat close to the pace and his lack of experience and fitness told in the closing stages. Was stepped up to 1 mile at Gowran Park for comeback run last week, and wore the tongue tie in the process. Finished 2nd of 16, beaten just half a length. The horse led for the majority of the contest, and just gave best in the last strides. Will have come on for that run, and Jim Bolger has a great record when he turns colts out within 2 weeks of their most recent run; 56/242 (23%) for £118 LSP, with the horses winning 54% more often than they should based on odds. Furthermore, Jim Bolger horses who are off the track for 4 weeks or less when they were off for 2+ months last time out are 56/372 (15%) for £80 LSP, with the runners winning 20% more often than they should.
15:50 Goodwood – Laugh Aloud to win
Saturday 6th May
17:30 Cork – Treaty of Vienna to win
Saturday 6th May