Despite being a listed race, the 333/1004.33+3333.333.33-0.30 about Lady Dutch look generous. This 4 year old filly really impressed on UK debut over course and distance when winning a class 2 conditions race by just shy of 3 lengths. Travelled like a dream and showed a sharp turn of foot to accelerate away from rivals. Admittedly those in behind would not have been suited by the pace and some were racing over a distance short of their optimum, but nonetheless, it was a visually pleasing performance. Was a noticeable market drifter that day suggesting that the Dutch Art filly was not hard fit. Should be able to take a midfield sit and likely to be delivered relatively late. Could be further improvement and looks like more of a 5/23.50+2502.502.50-0.40 chance, so there could be a bit of value in the price.
Second favourite Queen Catrine has the highest rating in the field, but this is her first run of the season and first start on the all-weather. Has some good form but has only won once, and seems to be the sort who needs everything to fall right to score.
4.00 Kempton – Very Special
Very Special hails from the Saeed Bin Suroor yard and could be much better than her mark. Was ultra-impressive on debut and then appeared a little green when running at Newmarket, finding herself unbalanced in the dip before staying on strongly. Won her debut at Yarmouth in fine style, and the key could be the switch to the all-weather and step up in trip as was finishing with effect over 7f at Newmarket and 8f should suit.
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a fantastic record with his horses having their first all weather start when switching from turf – 95/264 (36%) for £76 LSP producing an A/E of 1.38. The flat course and synthetic surface are real positives on paper.
It looks a two horse race, and Shagah is the main market rival. Rated 8lb clear of the selection, this smooth traveller returns from a 161 day absence for the Richard Hannon yard. Is more exposed having had 7 runs, and third in Group 2 at Doncaster prompted a 17lb hike in her rating to 101. Bred to go on the all weather, but perhaps better in a big field coming off a decent pace as travels smoothly.
With plenty of potential and the yards fantastic record on the all weather, Very Special is the choice.
Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.
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