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Kyrenia Castle, Overpriced Runner in Catterick

July 22, 2015


3.30 Catterick – Kyrenia Castle

Four horse contests aren’t our usual bag at SBO Racing, but Kyrenia Castle catches the eye as an overpriced runner at 3.50Bet €100 to win €3505/2Bet £100 to win £350+250Bet $100 to win $3502.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$3502.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp350-0.4000Bet RM100 to win RM350 in the 3.30 Catterick.

David Nicholls’ 3 year old son of Dashing Blade hasn’t been the most consistent (probably why he has been dropped into a claimer), but he has won over 7 furlongs on fast ground before, and the race might well unfold in his favour. When winning at Redcar, he sat close to the pace before asserting in the final 2 furlongs, and the easy 7 furlongs which suits front runners, is likely to play to his strengths as he has speed for shorter.

The trainer’s record in Class 6 claimers provides further support to the argument that Kyrenia Castle is overpriced. Nicholls is 92/340 (27.06%) for £91.36 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.34 when he drops his runners into these sorts of contests.

The favourite comes in the form of Johnny B Goode, who has been racing in better grades of racing, but hasn’t troubled the judge since last autumn when he racked up two victories on the bounce. Is obviously the form pick in the race, but at odds of 1.67Bet €100 to win €16767/100Bet £100 to win £167-149Bet $100 to win $1670.67Bet HK$100 to win HK$167-1.49Bet Rp100 to win Rp1670.6700Bet RM100 to win RM167 doesn’t represent any value. The other two runners in the field don’t stand much chance based on their recent endeavours and Kyrenia Castle is the selection based on price.

6.35 Sandown – American Artist

We went for a Roger Varian horse yesterday who did not get the run of the race, but we go in today with more confidence about his runner American Artist. The horse clearly has ability and has gone off favourite for all four starts, with finishing positions of 7th and 6th not quite a true reflection on his recent performances. Over the stiffer mile, he should come into his own, and it would be no surprise to see the son of Danehill Dancer get backed again.

Remember Roger Varian does superbly with his 3 year old runners in 3 year old+ handicaps when they did not win last time out and have been off for 8 weeks or less; 33/112 (29.46%) for £66.56 LSP, A/E 1.49. 3 year olds do better over these sorts of trips against their elders at this time of year and he and the favourite Wekeyll are the two unexposed performers in the field. Varian has been operating at a 33% strike rate in recent weeks, and expect an improved performance from his runner now back on turf.

Tips Summary (22nd July)

3.30 Catterick – Kyrenia Castle – 3.50Bet €100 to win €3505/2Bet £100 to win £350+250Bet $100 to win $3502.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$3502.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp350-0.4000Bet RM100 to win RM350 – Bet365, BetVictor

6.35 Sandown – American Artist – 3.50Bet €100 to win €3505/2Bet £100 to win £350+250Bet $100 to win $3502.50Bet HK$100 to win HK$3502.50Bet Rp100 to win Rp350-0.4000Bet RM100 to win RM350 – SkyBet, Boylesports

  • American Artist
  • Catterick
  • David Nicholls
  • Horse Racing Tips
  • Kyrenia Castle
  • Roger Varian
  • Sandown

    About the author

    Eric Roberts
    Eric Roberts

    Sports Journalist

    Eric has been a sports journalist for over 20 years and has travelled the world covering top sporting events for a number of publications. He also has a passion for betting and uses his in-depth knowledge of the sports world to pinpoint outstanding odds and value betting opportunities.