Kyrenia Castle, Overpriced Runner in Catterick
3.30 Catterick – Kyrenia Castle
Four horse contests aren’t our usual bag at SBO Racing, but Kyrenia Castle catches the eye as an overpriced runner at +250 in the 3.30 Catterick.
David Nicholls’ 3 year old son of Dashing Blade hasn’t been the most consistent (probably why he has been dropped into a claimer), but he has won over 7 furlongs on fast ground before, and the race might well unfold in his favour. When winning at Redcar, he sat close to the pace before asserting in the final 2 furlongs, and the easy 7 furlongs which suits front runners, is likely to play to his strengths as he has speed for shorter.
The trainer’s record in Class 6 claimers provides further support to the argument that Kyrenia Castle is overpriced. Nicholls is 92/340 (27.06%) for £91.36 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.34 when he drops his runners into these sorts of contests.
The favourite comes in the form of Johnny B Goode, who has been racing in better grades of racing, but hasn’t troubled the judge since last autumn when he racked up two victories on the bounce. Is obviously the form pick in the race, but at odds of -149 doesn’t represent any value. The other two runners in the field don’t stand much chance based on their recent endeavours and Kyrenia Castle is the selection based on price.
6.35 Sandown – American Artist
We went for a Roger Varian horse yesterday who did not get the run of the race, but we go in today with more confidence about his runner American Artist. The horse clearly has ability and has gone off favourite for all four starts, with finishing positions of 7th and 6th not quite a true reflection on his recent performances. Over the stiffer mile, he should come into his own, and it would be no surprise to see the son of Danehill Dancer get backed again.
Remember Roger Varian does superbly with his 3 year old runners in 3 year old+ handicaps when they did not win last time out and have been off for 8 weeks or less; 33/112 (29.46%) for £66.56 LSP, A/E 1.49. 3 year olds do better over these sorts of trips against their elders at this time of year and he and the favourite Wekeyll are the two unexposed performers in the field. Varian has been operating at a 33% strike rate in recent weeks, and expect an improved performance from his runner now back on turf.
Tips Summary (22nd July)