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7.35 Nottingham – Jumira Prince
Roger Varian (or Roger Variance as he is affectionately known as on Twitter) took the reins from the hugely successful Michael Jarvis after his untimely death, and Varian has done the Newmarket maestro proud in his fairly short training career. With powerful owners behind him, critics could scoff that it is easy for trainers to succeed, but what stands out about Varian is his patience and ability to discover what makes a horse tick. He has the favourite in the 8.5 furlong handicap at Nottingham in the form of Jumira Prince. The son of Exceed and Excel is clearly not the most straightforward runner and after sporting first time blinkers last time out, Varian reaches for the visor this time around. Will it work on the 3-year-old colt? We think so.
Jumira Prince showed steadily progression in three maidens and he was given a mark of 69 for handicap debut. The horse made his debut in handicap company over today’s course and distance and he was heavily backed, going off favourite, beating off 13 other rivals in the process. Disappointed on fast ground next time out but jumped back to form last time out, putting in a career best performance on the Racing Post Ratings, finishing a close second in the first-time blinkers. The horse was a little free and got headed near the line, but put in a solid performance.
As mentioned, Jumira Prince wears the first-time visor. Varian has an outstanding record when equipping his horses with the first-time visor; 5/14 (35%) for £21 LSP. The horses have scored over twice as often as they are entitled to based on odds. Andrea Atzeni is back onboard taking over from Jack Mitchell and the horse manages to just sneak into a Class 5 race. He is worth following at 2/1 3.00 +200 2.00 2.00 -0.50 with Bet365 and BetVictor.
8.50 Chelmsford – Higgy’s Heartbeat
We have one strong fancy on Tuesday, and one bigger priced runner, and Higgy’s Heartbeat represents the longer odds runner. Dean Ivory’s runner is making his handicap debut for a stable that do well under these conditions, and we fancy him to finish in the money at odds of 7/1 8.00 +700 7.00 7.00 -0.14 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes.
Higgy’s Heartbeat started his career over 8 furlongs this April at Kempton. The effort didn’t scream promise – the son of Acclamation was beaten 12 lengths and finished second last. Following on, the horse was a 101 shot at Windsor, again over a mile, and didn’t fare much better. Connections decided to drop the horse back to 6 furlongs (which makes much more sense based on breeding) and the horse displayed more ability, finishing third at Yarmouth. The winner was a heavy odds on favourite, and Higgy’s Heartbeat stayed on in pleasing fashion. The official handicapper has decided to allow Dean Ivory’s runner to race off an opening mark of 58, and that allows him to sneak into a Class 6 race.
Chelmsford is a track where runners can come from behind as there is a sweeping bend into a decent home straight, and Higgy’s Heartbeat is likely to be doing his best work at the end of the contest. There are a few positive statistics that support our selection’s chance; firstly Dean Ivory runners who competed on the turf last time out and are running on the all-weather in February-October are 32/267 (12%) for £95 LSP. Furthermore, Ivory’s 3 year olds in 3 year old+ handicaps over 10 furlongs or less are also very profitable; 23/121 (19%) for £71 LSP. The horses win 60% more often than they should do based on odds.
In running traders may like to back Higgy’s Heartbeat mid-race as he should be bigger than his starting price.
19:35 Nottingham – Jumira Prince to win
Tuesday 8th August
Odds: 2/1 3.00 +200 2.00 2.00 -0.50
20:50 Chelmsford – Higgy’s Heartbeat to win
Tuesday 8th August
Odds: 7/1 8.00 +700 7.00 7.00 -0.14
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