Ivory Looking for a Poetic Night at Chelmsford

Thursday's tips include a handicap debutante at Chelmsford.

Thursday's tips include a handicap debutante at Chelmsford.

4:50 Salisbury – Sabre Squadron

The 12 furlong 3 year old + handicap at Salisbury is a particularly interesting contest with a number of in form horses competing against each other. As well as potential improvers, there are also last time out winners and it is sure to be an enthralling affair. The market leader is the Jane Chapple-Hyam trained Uber Cool – a progressive 3-year-old who is chasing a hat trick. The horse won on handicap debut by the narrowest of margins last time out, but this is tougher and the son of Born To Sea is no value. Instead, we like to look a little further down the field and the Alan King trained Sabre Squadron looks like a horse with much more to offer this year. The 4-year old gelding won a maiden for Peter Chapple-Hyam last year before bombing out on his next run. He subsequently moved yards and joined the shrewd Alan King stable. The dual-purpose handler may well have got Sabre Squadron back to his best, and a mark of 80 looks workable.

Sabre Squadron ran moderately on debut at Newbury back in October of 2015. Was gelded and given the winter off and returned with another uninspiring performance. That effort clearly blew away the cobwebs as he bolted up over 8 furlongs at Leicester, beating subsequent winners. Following on, the horse was beaten out of sight at Pontefract and that is when the yard switch occurred. Joining Alan King can’t be a bad thing, and the horse has been upped to 12 furlongs – a trip that should suit. He can be backed at  +750  with Bet365.

Alan King does very well with his handicappers off for 6+ weeks; 43/310 (14%) for £45 LSP, with the horses winning 40% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. Sabre Squadron returns from 325 days off and he could come back stronger.

7.10 Chelmsford – Poet’s Quest

A horse with form figures that read 009 is hardly the most obvious starting point for a bet, but there are some real positive statistics behind Dean Ivory’s 3-year-old Poet’s Quest, and with the horse being a potential improver now he switches to handicaps, there is reason to support the son of Poet’s Voice at odds of +1200  with BetVictor.

Poet’s Voice made his debut this March at Kempton and showed zilch. He was beaten 53 lengths last of 12 in a maiden and ran so poorly, that the Racing Post couldn’t attribute the horse a figure. Improved slightly next time out when beating one runner home, hitting an RPR of 24 and stepped forward on third run at Nottingham, beating two home and running to an RPR of 44. Naturally the handicappers hasn’t been able to do much with the horse, and he has been allotted a mark of 46. The positive to take out from those starts was that he improved with each run and the horse is now eligible to compete against rivals who have a similar level of ability.

Now for the stats to give us hope. Dean Ivory competitors who ran on turf last time out and are switching to the all-weather in February to October are very profitable; 33/268 (12%) for £96 LSP, with the horses scoring 60% more regularly than they are entitled to based on odds. Furthermore Ivory is impressive when he pits his 3 year olds in 3 year old + races over less than 10 furlongs; 23/123 (19%) for £69 LSP. They are some pretty compelling figures and make us believe that Poet’s Quest is value.

Tips Summary

16:50 Salisbury – Sabre Squadron to win
Thursday 7th September
Odds:  +750

19:10 Chelmsford – Poet’s Quest to win
Thursday 7th September
Odds:  +1200