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5.35 Southwell – Ingleby Hollow
Ingleby Hollow is one of two dark horses (the other being Rock Heroine) in what looks to be a weak handicap 8f 3 year old handicap at Southwell. David O’Meara’s Beat Hollow gelding appears to be one who may well step up plenty of what he has previously shown on the racecourse.
There are three angles in on this horse which suggest he should go well. Firstly the horse returns from 170+ day absence. This could be good for two reasons; the trainer is profitable with his runners who have been off the track for 8+ weeks; 38/294 (13%) for an A/E of 1.18 and the sire Beat Hollow’s runners do superbly well in their 3 year old season. The horse is switching from maiden to handicap company and a mark of 59 looks very workable. Perhaps the biggest positive however, is the switch from the turf to the all-weather. Sire Beat Hollow’s progeny who are having their first all-weather start, have a great record; 24/105 (23%) for a LSP of £55 and an A/E of 1.70. That means his offspring win 70% more often than they are entitled to on their first start on the synthetic surfaces.
Stall 5 is a solid draw, and the horse is likely to sit prominently early (did race keenly last year). Rock Heroine is another making her handicap debut, but she has been inclined to hang which is off-putting. At odds of +250 , Ingleby Hollow has to be the call.
Tips Summary (23rd April)
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