3.10 Brighton – Free Forum
Brighton can be a tricky track with the undulations and unusual configuration. Certain horses love the unique nature of the track while others struggle to find their balance on the surface. Av A Word is a course specialist who has the champion jockey elect Silvestre De Sousa onboard, but he is a little exposed and the market leader Free Forum looks to have the potential to be much better than this field.
Free Forum ran abysmally in three maidens. He was beaten 8 lengths and finished last on debut. The second run wasn’t much better, with the horse finishing 11th of 12, beaten 21 lengths. On his final start in maiden company, the son of Holy Roman Emperor was beaten 15 lengths and was again down the field. Despite going off at huge odds each time he ran and with little ability shown, the handicapper could have been expected to demonstrate a little leniency towards Free Forum, but instead he allotted Simcock’s runner a mark of 58.
Free Forum’s runs in maiden company all came in April and following on from those efforts, the Newmarket trainer gelded his runner and gave him a three month break. The 3-year-old returned to action at Great Yarmouth and was stepped up in trip to 10 furlongs. The switch to handicap company, gelding operation and break off the track seemed to have done the horse the world of good, as he was well backed in the betting and the horse duly won.
David Simcock’s last time out handicap winners running in another handicap (Class 3 or lower) are very profitable 60/203 (30%) for £45 LSP. The horses win on average 25% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. Free Forum is a strong selection at +125 with Ladbrokes.
3.50 Wolverhampton – Cat Royale
Cat Royale hails from the John Butler stable. John Butler is a polarising trainer. The Irishman who based himself at Newmarket, has been behind many big gambles in recent years and the market often (but not always) is indicative of how his horses will run. After several dismal runs, Butler’s horse Cat Royale bounced back into life when dropped back in trip last time out. The son of Lilbourne Lad is well handicapped on old form and he has a good chance of recording back to back victories. In an open race, the horse can be supported at odds of +550 with BetVictor.
Cat Royale moved to the John Butler stable in February of this year. The horse was tried over a variety of distances, but only got his act together when dropped back to 8.5 furlongs at Wolverhampton. He made all and showed a very good attitude to fend off rivals. The gelding has won off a mark of 72 last year and races off 65 this time around, so is well handicapped on his old form. Steps up 1 furlong in trip, but has gone close over today’s course and distance before, so has to be considered a strong contender.
John Butler does very well with his horses when they are carrying top weights in handicaps; 28/108 (26%) for £70 LSP, producing an impressive A/E of 1.67.
15:10 Brighton – Free Forum to win
Friday 11th August
15:50 Wolverhampton – Cat Royale to win
Friday 11th August