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2.20 Haydock – Ferdy
Paul Green hasn’t had too many runners in recent times, but his handicapper Ferdy has a good chance of placing and potentially winning the 10f Class 5 contest at Haydock. Running fairly consistently in recent times, he has 4 places from 9 starts at the course.
Ferdy goes much the best on fast ground. On good to firm going, he is 2/15 with a further 6 places. This also seems to be his trip nowadays. Ran over course and distance on penultimate start on good to soft ground, and third place has to be very encouraging given that the ground was not ideal. Stepped up in distance last time out and didn’t pose much of a threat late in the day, suggesting that the 10.5 furlongs is his ideal trip.
Ferdy only ran 5 days ago, but Paul Green is very adept at bringing his runners back successfully within a short period of time. His horses off for 7 days or less who did not win last time out are 27/161 (16.77%) for £64.20 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.63
The favourite is the Timmy Murphy ridden Goodby Inheritance who is unexposed and has shown some useful form. He is however yet to win, and is towards the top of the handicap.
Ferdy should go well and with 8 runners, he makes a decent each-way bet.
7.05 Newbury – La Rioja
Henry Candy’s 2 year olds are known to come on plenty for their debut runs and the fact that La Rioja ran such a promising race to finish second, bodes well for her this time out in an admittedly harder contest.
Sent off a warm +275 second favourite at Lingfield, the daughter of Hellvellyn didn’t enjoy the clearest passage through the race and was eventually outpointed by the more experienced favourite. She should have learnt plenty from the run and Henry Candy’s second time out 2 year olds have a fantastic record; 26/153 (16.99%) for £64.11 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.51
The race is wide open, and there are a number of interesting horses from powerful stables, but the racecourse experience could count for plenty. The fact that she was strong in the market on debut and ran a solid race suggests she could be an above average type and the odds of +450 look too big.
Tips Summary (2nd July)
7.05 Newbury – La Rioja Win – +450 – PaddyPower
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