Fanshawe’s Favourite Fly to Flourish at Kempton

21st-october

7.25 Kempton – Fly

Unbeaten in two starts, James Fanshawe’s 3 year old Pastoral Pursuits filly Fly looks to make it 3 in a row at Kempton on Wednesday. She has already shown she handles both turf and the all-weather and impressed with her attitude last time out when asserting late over course and distance.

5.0 in the market for her debut over 7 furlongs in testing ground at Lingfield on the turf, Fly touched a big price in running after victory looked most unlikely a couple of furlongs from home. She was outpaced and didn’t look to be going anywhere quickly, but as the penny dropped and the race reached its conclusion, she strode forward purposefully and got up in the shadows of the post. The step up to the mile seemed like the logical solution based on her running style, and that is what her shrewd trainer, James Fanshawe did. Racing off a mark of 70 over tonight’s course and distance, she had to fend off a sustained challenge, but won more comfortably than the ½ length margin of victory implied. Up just 5lbs, she strikes as the sort of horse to improve with racing, and she still looked to be learning her craft last time out. The field is most comprised of more exposed rivals and despite her cramped odds, Fly could well turn out to be much better than her rivals in due course.

The second favourite comes in the form of Presumido, from the Simon Dow team. Although he is a course and distance winner, doesn’t strike as the strongest stayer at the trip (has mostly raced over 6/7 furlongs), and could get outstayed by the selection.

8.25 Kempton – Ustinov

Ustinov is another horse chasing a hat trick, and we like his chances of succeeding in the Class 4 handicap at Kempton. Highly tried as a 2 year old, the son of Exceed and Excel appears to have found his feet again and a mark of 85 may still be workable.

Won a 6 furlong handicap at Ayr when a well backed favourite and followed that up last time out, winning a 7 furlong contest at Wolverhampton. Again, was especially strong in the market that day, and the yard most certainly know the time of day when it comes to the betting ring. Raced off 81 and due to the relatively narrow margin of victory, has only gone up 4lbs, which could well underestimate him.

Second favourite Commodore is trained by George Baker and ridden by George Baker. The horse clearly has ability, but has finished second on his last 3 starts. Maybe doesn’t put absolutely everything in at the finish. Is likely to hit the frame and could be an each-way option, but we couldn’t be confident he will put his head in front.

Tips Summary (21st October)

7.25 Kempton – Fly – +138 PaddyPower

8.25 Kempton – Ustinov – +225 PaddyPower

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