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2.20 Southwell – Eva Clare
Fillies handicaps are not the typical destination for the selections at Sports Betting Online. However, in the 2.20 5f fillies handicap at Southwell on Tuesday, there looks to be a very good value bet in the form of Eva Clare. Already trimmed by most firms, she is still available at 7/2 4.50 +350 3.50 3.50 -0.29 and is likely to be shorter by the off.
Is a course and distance winner which is always a bonus (particularly at Southwell), and put up a respectable effort when last seen (at the course), running as if she would need it. That was the Majestic Missile fillies first run since October and Karl Burke runners having returning to the track within 6-12 weeks when they were off for 3+ months last time out have a very good record; 7/47 for £17 LSP. A/E 2.11
On face value, the race looks quite tough, with two last time out winners in the form of Lazy Sioux and Saved My Bacon. The former is the favourite, but Richard Guest’s record with last time out winners who run within 7 days is very poor. Saved My Bacon looks a progressive filly and has Silvestre De Sousa on board, but she is dropping back from 6f to 5f, so there has to be a question mark over the suitability of the trip on a course which requires plenty of early speed.
Eva Clare should be much sharper this time out and with less question marks than the other two market principles, rates decent value at 7/2 4.50 +350 3.50 3.50 -0.29
4.30 Southwell – Reposer
Reposer put up a really encouraging reappearance run over 6f at Catterick and is fair value to go one better upped in trip at Southwell over 7f. Widely available at 7.0, the son of Kheleyf should appreciate the extra yardage and Keith Dalgleish’s inmate has a better record on the all-weather than turf, so a return to the artificial surface should also be in his favour.
First run at Southwell, but sire Kheleyf’s progeny have a decent 13% record on the sand, and the horses quick return to the track gives further room for optimism. After all, Dalgleish is 57/271 (21%) with his runners turned out within 7 days under no penalty, producing a profit of £78 LSP and an A/E of 1.35.
Reposer has a solid draw in stall 5, and the likely good pace that should be forced by Dr Red Eye and Repetition, is likely to suit. This is a very competitive race, but the odds about the selection seem a little generous.