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Capla Dancer is a horse who we put up as a strong fancy last week, but the horse was declared a non-runner. Hopefully this filly can make it to the track today and although this race is tougher than the one we tipped her up in previously, she has a very strong chance of going in. The race is contested over Catterick’s flying 5 furlongs, and from a favourable draw in stall 3, the daughter of Red Jazz should go very close.
Catterick’s 5-furlong track is very sharp and one of the quickest in the country. There is a dog leg turn soon after the start, where the horses turn into the home straight. There are undulations in the course, which means it is difficult to come off the pace, especially in the short races, as horses take time to get into full gear. Capla Dancer is a horse who should be able to handle these undulations, as she managed to win at Ripon on debut – a course which also has an up and down topography. The juvenile went off at odds of 66/1 67.00 +6600 66.00 66.00 -0.02 on debut, and from the Karl Burke stable, it was a real surprise that she won, as the wily trainer’s well fancied runners tend to be well supported in the market. She broke well and showed tremendous early pace to sit at the forefront of the field. Entered a sustained battle in the final furlong, and despite being intimated, managed to get her head in front. That experience will have been hugely beneficial and with her early pace, she should be in a great position at Catterick.
As mentioned, Karl Burke tends to leave something to work on with his debutant 2 year olds. His second time out 2 year olds have a very profitable record; 41/200 (21%) for £111 LSP, with his horses winning 50% more often than they should do based on odds. Capla is available at odds of 9/4 3.25 +225 2.25 2.25 -0.44 with Ladbrokes and Coral but should be a 2/1 3.00 +200 2.00 2.00 -0.50 shot or shorter.
Dr Mawan Koukash is an owner who absolutely loves having winners at Chester, and the good doctor has a solid chance of getting back in the winner’s enclosure with the last time out winner Energia Fox at 9/2 5.50 +450 4.50 4.50 -0.22 with Ladbrokes. The horse has been in and out of form, but bounced back to form last time out when well backed at Newcastle. Won off a mark of 77, recording an RPR of 84, and although she has been raised to 81, there is a good chance the horse can go close as she has gone well off marks that are much higher.
Last time out, Energia Fox raced over 10 furlongs at Newcastle. Tracked the leaders and although she only won by 1 length, the horse appeared to have more in the tank. She had previously been much better and had been sliding in the weights, so she definitely has the ability, it is just a case of mindset. Richard Fahey inherited the horse last summer, and perhaps it has taken him this long to find the key to the mare. Fahey’s handicappers who are returning from an 8+ week break in March-May do very well; 107/736 (14.5%) for £97 LSP, giving an A/E of 17/50 1.34 -294 0.34 -2.94 0.34 .
The market leader is the Tom Dascombe trained Caponova. This runner won very well last time out and does have a favourite’s chance, but is a little short in the betting. However, he is likely to go close, and we will include him in a reverse forecast.
14:05 Catterick – Capla Dancer to win
Thursday 11th May
Odds: 9/4 3.25 +225 2.25 2.25 -0.44
17:05 Chester – Energia Fox to win
Thursday 11th May
Odds: 9/2 5.50 +450 4.50 4.50 -0.22
17:05 Chester – Energia Fox/Caponova (reverse forecast)
Thursday 11th May
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