Nice to turn some profit on Tuesday, and let’s hope that being in the green can be replicated on Wednesday. We have two bigger priced runners who seem to have been underestimated by the layers, and there is a good chance that they can make the frame and turn some profit.
Delagate This Lord doesn’t look like the obvious winner of the 3.00pm 7 furlong handicap at Wolverhampton and bookmakers have priced the runner up accordingly, but there is room to think that he may be able to outrun his odds and go close, with some statistics and trends in his favour.
As a 2 year old, Delagate This Lord didn’t cut too much ice and after finishing down the field in maidens, he was allotted an opening mark of 59. The horse was kept to maiden company despite being eligible for handicaps and went off a whopping +12500 and ran accordingly. That run was in December and Turner’s runner was given a few months off the track to try and progress at home. Switched to handicap company, the horse ran with a bit more distinction, finishing a relatively close up 7th behind a horse he opposes again today, Metronomic. So why should the horse get closer than the 3 ¼ lengths behind Richard Hannon’s runner today? Two reasons, the first time cheek pieces have been applied, and it is also Delagate This Lord’s second run back after a break.
Bill Turner’s runners who are racing over 8 furlongs or less and are turned out within 2 weeks are 66/425 (15.5%) for £111 LSP, with his runners winning 37% more often than they should do based on odds. The horse is likely to have come on plenty from his last run. The cheek pieces should sharpen the runner up significantly. From stall 1, Delagate This Lord is likely to sit close to the pace and is worth taking a chance on at odds of +1600 with Bet365 and BetVictor
Quick Look is our best bet on Wednesday and the horse seems overpriced at odds of +800 . There was significant market support for Michael Easterby’s runner at Chelmsford, but if it could go wrong, then it did. The horse fly leapt as the stalls opened and the runner found a significant amount of trouble in running, with his jockey eventually accepting the situation. With a better trip today, he can go much closer, and the odds of +800 with Coral and Ladbrokes are really attractive.
Quick Look won on debut as a 2 year old in the month of June, but wasn’t seen for a year after that opening effort, so something clearly went amiss. Came back and was generally consistent, recording RPR’s in the mid 80’s. Was with the Willie Jarvis stable but moved to Michael Easterby stable at the end of March before his reversal at Chelmsford. The fact that Easterby’s yard backed Quick Look is indicative that they think they have a well handicapped horse. When Easterby’s runners were beaten favourites last time out, they are very profitable the next time they hit the track; 71/378 (19%) for £17 LSP, giving an A/E of -370 .
With a better start, Quick Look should be able to obtain a favourable early position and the son of Kheleyf looks well handicapped off a mark of 79. He could well improve for the new yard as the season progresses and looks the one to be with.
15:00 Wolverhampton – Delagate This Lord (Each Way)
Wednesday 3rd May
16:35 Pontefract – Quick Look (Each Way)
Wednesday 3rd May
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