The all-weather contests typically start to get a little less competitive over the summer months, as most trainers send their better runners to the turf. It is worth following those trainers who take advantage of this and improve their strike rate on artificial surfaces over the summer months, and James Given is one of those trainers who does particularly well. He is represented in the 7 furlong Class 6 handicap by the progressive Dusky Maid who got off the mark last time out at Catterick. This filly has some form on the all-weather so should handle the surface.
Dusky Maid ran some okay races in maidens, and despite not making her debut until 20th February 2017, she had 4 runs under her belt just 6 weeks later. Only hit the frame once, but was allocated a workable mark of 65 after those starts. Was kept to maiden company for her fifth start at Catterick and went off at odds of 9.0, eventually scoring comfortably after sitting handy. That contest was a weak one though, and the handicapper left the daughter of Dark Angel on the same official rating, so she just manages to sneak into Class 6 company. She is drawn a little wide in stall 9, but as a prominent racer, she should be able to obtain a favourable early position. She represents a solid bet at odds of +450 with BetVictor.
James Given runners who have had 5 starts or less, won last time out and are in the first 3 in the market have a fantastic record; 28/77 (36%) for £38 LSP, with the horses winning 47% more often than they should do based on odds. Furthermore, Given’s all weather runners competing in June-August do very well; 31/177 (18%) for £87 LSP, with the horses winning 56% more often than they should do based on odds, so the statistics are most certainly in favour of the Given runner.
George Baker, head of the Made In Chelsea mafia is a former city boy turned racehorse trainer, and he has become one of the best operators in the game. Baker knows the time of day when it comes to the betting market and he places his horses very well. He is represented by Papou Tony in the Class 5 7 furlong handicap at Kempton Park racecourse, and his 4 year old gelding is chasing the hat trick. He returns from a break of 8 weeks, but with this yard that is more of a positive than anything, and at odds of +450 with BetVictor, Ladbrokes and William Hill he is the value.
Papou Tony is one of those horses who has progressed slowly with racing, and didn’t look to be that well handicapped prior to his run at Kempton back in February. Was backed into favouritism that day and won comfortably. Followed that effort up by scoring at the same track, dropped back to 7 furlongs. The horse is versatile and Baker has clearly found the key to the son of Raven’s Pass. Won last time out off a mark of 68 and has been hiked up to 73 which is far from insurmountable. Papou Tony goes best when sitting midfield/towards the rear, and he is a strong travelling individual. Likely to drop in from stall 7.
As mentioned, Baker has a great record with his horses who return from a mini break; his 3 year old+ runners off for 43-90 days are very profitable; 34/227 (15%) for £71 LSP, with the horses winning 31% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. Papou Tony should be closer to +300 for this contest and +450 is a big price.
17:25 Wolverhampton – Dusky Maid to Win
Wednesday 7th June
17:55 Kempton Park – Papou Tony
Wednesday 7th June