The 10 furlong 0-55 handicap at Brighton does not look like a betting medium at first glance, with a number of lowly rated, out of form horses lining up against each other. This isn’t a race where we have an ultra-strong opinion, but Lazizah should definitely not be available at a double figure price, and while the Medicean filly most certainly comes with risks attached, she could well improve this year.
Lazizah is a 4 year old filly who has only seen the racecourse 7 times. She has been off the track for 360 days and was a disappointing beaten favourite last time out. That effort followed on from a promising run at Brighton, where the horse finished second of ten in the first time hood. She clearly handles the track and is now rated just 52. The intriguing factor is that Marcus Tregoning has kept hold of the horse – he must think that she can win a race off her mark.
After having nearly a year off, one might be concerned that Lazizah may not be fit, but it shouldn’t be a worry with the Tregoning stable. In fact, when the Newmarket handler gives his handicappers time off the track, they are very profitable when returning; 43/236 (18%) for £56 LSP, with the horses winning 60% more often than they are entitled to based on their odds. Lazizah is likely to sit mid division early and hopefully she consents to put her best foot forward in the latter stages of the contest. A worthy punt at +1000 with Bet365.
Roger Charlton always has a long term vision in mind for his horses, and consequently his runners tend to progress and step forward with each run. His 2 year olds are especially prone to improve significantly from their first start, and therefore when they show ability on debut, they are usually worth following. Dream Prospect is one of those individuals who showed some form on his first start at Sandown and now he has been stepped up in trip, a big run is expected. He can be supported at generous odds of +550 with BetVictor.
Dream Prospect made is debut 18 days ago at Sandown and went off at odds of +750 . The horse dwelt early and was forced to race on the outside of the field, and as they quickened, the horse didn’t have the experience or the turn of foot to keep up with the principles. The son of Invincible Spirit did manage to finish 6th of 9 and ran like a horse who would really learn a lot from the run. Chepstow’s course although undulating, lends itself to galloping types and the step up to 6 furlongs and change of course is likely to suit, as the horse looked like a runner who would appreciate the extra yardage.
Roger Charlton second time out 2 year olds who have been off for more than 2 weeks and didn’t win on debut do very well; 78/279 (28%) for £81 LSP with the horses winning 40% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. The favourite is the Brian Meehan trained Barraquero. It is easy to see why the son of Zebedee is a strong market leader – he put up a highly encouraging performance on debut at Newbury over 6 ½ furlongs. The horse showed a lot of pace early and only faded on late, suggesting he could well be a smart type. Whether he should be close to even money is debateable though.
15:45 Brighton – Lazizah to win
Tuesday 4th July
18:40 Chepstow – Dream Prospect to win
Tuesday 4th July