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3.15 Yarmouth – Seyasah
Seyasah is a horse from the Chris Wall yard, and this 3-year-old filly is a horse who we have supported in the past, and although she may not be the most straightforward type, conditions look like they will suit in the 6 furlong, Class 5 handicap at Yarmouth. The ground is soft and it is the first time that the daughter of Casamento has encountered squelchy underfoot conditions, but there is reason to believe that it should be too much of an issue.
Seyasah ran three solid races back in 2016 to get a handicap mark and she came back after that and ran a couple of moderate races. After a couple of months off the track, things seemed to click at Leicester and Wall’s filly finished second at odds of 8/1 9.00 +800 8.00 8.00 -0.13 . Filled the same berth next time at Doncaster, and at the same odds. That run was encouraging – she was held up early and came through with a strong challenge only to be just bested by the winner. Dropping back in class at Yarmouth last time out on fast ground should have suited, but she finished second for the third time in a row.
There are many stats that support the chance of Seyasah. Chris Wall horses who competed in maidens or novice company last time out and are switching to handicap company do well; 26/169 (15%) for £38 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.28. Furthermore, Wall doesn’t leave the money behind too often and when his horses were beaten favourite last time out, they are profitable; 97/415 (23%) for £130 LSP, with the horses winning 40% more frequently than they are entitled to based on odds. Finally, Wall’s 3 year olds in 3 year old+ handicap company from June to October are 53/308 (17%) for £64 LSP. She may not be the most resolute but Seyasah should finish in the money and may get her head in front. She can be supported at odds of 9/2 5.50 +450 4.50 4.50 -0.22 with BetVictor and that seems to be each-way value.
4.00 Beverley – Dirchill
Dirchill is an interesting runner from the shrewd David Barron stable. The 3-year-old gelding by Power is dropping in class and sports the first time blinkers and that is reason enough to believe he can return to winning ways. Odds of 5/1 6.00 +500 5.00 5.00 -0.20 with Bet365 seem to be a rick on the bookmakers’ part.
Dirchill has been ultra-consistent running to very similar form figures in all of his starts. However, it took the horse until his seventh start before he got off the mark – beating just three rivals at Hamilton, demolishing them by 4 lengths. Followed that effort up with a solid performance over the same course and distance next time out, finishing third in a Class 4 handicap. A feature of Dirchill’s runs has been his keenness and connections have decided that a stiff 5 furlongs is likely to suit – and that is exactly what he has been given at Beverley. Furthermore, connections have decided to fit blinkers to concentrate the horse and this combination coupled with a drop in class, could see the horse go close.
Barron does very well with his class droppers; 31/185 (17%) for £30 LSP, A/E 1.35. This horse should go close.
15:15 Yarmouth – Sayasah Each Way
Wednesday 20th September
Odds: 9/2 5.50 +450 4.50 4.50 -0.22
16:00 Beverley – Dirchill to win
Wednesday 20th September
Odds: 5/1 6.00 +500 5.00 5.00 -0.20
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