2.15 Ripon – Deviate
Ripon – one of the fastest 5 furlong courses in the country. An undulating downhill track located in scenic Yorkshire – and a course where trainers in the north often like to send their promising juveniles as they learn a lot from trying out the track. Our first selection on Tuesday is in the 2.15 5 furlong Fillies’ Novice Stakes. Tom Dascombe is a capable operator and does well with young horses, and he appears to have a promising filly in the form of Deviate. The daughter of Acclamation scored last time out and will be looking to repeat the feat. Despite the penalty she carries, there are a few reasons to think she has a solid chance, and the market seems to have underestimated the filly from Manor House Stables.
Deviate wasn’t particularly prominent in the betting on debut at Newbury over 6 furlongs and ran accordingly. She recorded an RPR of 41 but that doesn’t tell the full story – the young horse led for the majority of the race before fading right out of contention. Deviate dropped back to 5 furlongs next time out at Wolverhampton and she showed the same zip on debut, but the drop to the minimum trip and experience seemed to work very well, as she led and clung on late in the piece.
Young horses at Ripon often benefit getting the rail as it helps them handle the undulations and keeps them concentrated. Deviate has the benefit of being drawn stall 11, so she can pop out, use that early toe and grab the rail. Are there ‘sexier’ horses in the field who may close down our selection late in the day? Yes. However they are not as well drawn and may lack the early pace – Deviate is solid at odds of +900 with Bet365. Furthermore, trainer Tom Dascombe does well with his last time out winners who have been off the track for 4 weeks or more; 35/162 (22%) for £72 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.55.
4.50 Epsom – Oh It’s Saucepot
Oh It’s Saucepot is a filly on the up. She is chasing a hat trick of wins after scoring twice in the last month, and Chris Wall’s representative could well progress another 15lbs up the ranks before her winning run comes to an end.
Oh It’s Saucepot ran moderately in maidens last season. She returned and stepped up significantly on previous form when finishing midfield at Newmarket. The was on handicap debut off a mark of 60 and connections were clearly pretty content with that mark as she went off favourite next time out over the same course and distance. The money was well placed as the daughter of Sir Percy ground it out and got off the mark by a narrow margin. Two things were evident from that race – firstly, Wall’s horse appeared to be getting fitter with each run, and secondly, she is a strong stayer, as evidenced by the sustained run late in the race. Confirmed those hypotheses in her next start by scoring at Yarmouth over 9 furlongs, going away at the finish. She can be backed at +225 with Bet365 and Coral.
Oh It’s Saucepot competes over 10 furlongs this time out which will suit. Wall’s 3-year-old handicappers in 3 year old+ handicaps in June-October are profitable; 53/307 (17%) for £66 LSP.
14:15 Ripon – Deviate to win
Tuesday 29th August
16:50 Epsom – Oh It’s Saucepot to win
Tuesday 29th August