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A nice way to continue the week for us at SBO Racing, as our selection Space War got up to win at juicy odds giving us a healthy profit on the day. Let’s see if we can go one better on Wednesday and get the double up.
We take a rare foray into the world of National Hunt racing, and on a nice card at Cheltenham, we like the look of the Nigel Hawke trained Deauville Crystal. The 4 year old Raven’s Pass filly has done nothing but improve since joining the Nigel Hawke yard and although she takes a step up in class, there is a very good chance she can improve and go close. In a dead 8 runner race, she rates as a decent each-way bet at odds of 8/1 9.00 +800 8.00 8.00 -0.13 with BetVictor.
Deauville Crystal joined Nigel Hawke last November, and ran no sort of race on debut for the yard. However, she quickly found her feet at the yard and improved finishing second next time out at odds of 50/1 51.00 +5000 50.00 50.00 -0.02 . Improved her RPR each time she ran and took her form to the next level last time out when dominating a 6 runner handicap at Warwick. Was confidently ridden that day and won with plenty in hand. The handicapper took note and she has been hiked from 121 to 130 and connections have decided to tackle listed company.
Are there horses with better form in the field? Yes. But at the same point, Nigel Hawke probably hasn’t got to the bottom of this filly. The ground will be a little faster than she has previously encountered, but sire Raven’s Pass was better on fast ground, so there could be room for more improvement with today’s underfoot conditions. Nigel Hawke 4 year old+ runners who won last time out, have a great record; 29/103 (28%) for £36 LSP, giving an A/E of 11/20 1.55 -182 0.55 -1.82 0.55 .
We didn’t have much success yesterday with our Luca Cumani maiden runner finishing 3rd, but we go back in again with the Italian maestro’s runner Spinnaka. The 3 year old filly runs in a 7 furlong maiden at Newmarket, and looks to have a very solid chance in what is a competitive affair.
Spinnaka has been off the track for 241 days, and this well bred filly made her debut at Brighton, over the 6 furlong distance. The horse wasn’t totally unfancied in the market, at odds of 11/2 6.50 +550 5.50 5.50 -0.18 , but normally when Luca Cumani has one he really he really likes on debut, then they tend to do well. The horse showed her inexperience early, being slowly away from the stalls, before being outpaced early. Once the daughter of Invincible Spirit got the hang of it, she really motored and finished second to a facile winner. Brighton is a good track to bring newcomers to and they tend to learn a lot from their runs due to the unique topography of the course and its unusual shape.
The horse is bred to do better as a 3 year old, and Luca Cumani has some strong stats that support this horse’s chances. Cumani’s 3 year old runners who have had one start and are off for 150+ days have a fantastic record; 24/79 (30%) for £30 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.54. Cumani horses in general that are off for 90+ days and are returning in April onwards are 90/389 (23%) for £75 LSP, for an A/E of 33/100 1.33 -303 0.33 -3.03 0.33 .
The market leader is the Charles Hills’ trained Manaahil, who is a once raced filly who made her debut at Kempton in a decent race. The bare form of her run at Kempton on debut is better than our selections run at Brighton – but Spinnaka steps up in trip and that should suit. At 9/2 5.50 +450 4.50 4.50 -0.22 with William Hill and BetVictor, she is the bet.
14:05 Cheltenham – Crystal Deauville Each Way
Thursday 20th April
Odds: 8/1 9.00 +800 8.00 8.00 -0.13
16:10 Newmarket – Spinnaka Each Way
Thursday 20th April
Odds: 9/2 5.50 +450 4.50 4.50 -0.22