Newcastle have a good card on Thursday and one of the most interesting races on the card is the 8 furlong handicap. This Class 2 event has some in form contenders and is sure to throw up an exciting finish. There is no strong market leader, and the SBO Racing team believe Replenish is the value in the contest. James Fanshawe sends his runner up from Newmarket and with previous course and distance form, the horse is interesting. He disappointed last time out but that run was on turf and the horse has clearly shown his best form on artificial surfaces. The son of Le Havre can be backed at enticing odds of +500 with BetVictor, Ladbrokes and Coral.
Replenish is a 4 year old gelding who started his career with a disappointing performance, but since then he has not looked back. He signed off his a 2 year old career with a victory and then returned in 2016 with another win.
Throughout 2016 the horse progressed through the handicap ranks and after a winter break, Fanshawe’s runner returned in April at Lingfield on the all-weather, finishing a close up third. He recorded an RPR of 99 which is very solid, but that good effort was overshadowed next time out when the horse switched to turf on soft ground at Newmarket. He clearly didn’t handle conditions and finished last. The handicapper has decided to drop the horse 4lbs on turf but his all-weather mark remains the same.
There are some strong statistics to support Replenish. James Fanshawe does very well on the all-weather in June and July; 44/182 (24%) for £81 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.62. Furthermore, Fanshawe’s horses who ran on the turf last time out and are switching to the all-weather do very well; 84/353 (24%) for £116 LSP, with the runners scoring 50% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. Replenish is tactically versatile and has scored over course and distance before so he can be given a strong chance.
David Barron is a trainer to follow and he does very well in the North. Barron’s horse Black Salt was a last time out winner who is rated 74 so he just sneaks into Class 5 company. In a race where there are other last time out winners, he represents some betting values at odds of +500 with Bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral.
Black Salt has shown a nice and progressive profile. The 3 year old Equiano gelding started his career at the back end of 2016, finishing midfield in a Redcar maiden. The horse came back at Ripon and finished second at Ripon. Followed that effort up by scoring at Redcar in comfortable fashion, sitting close to the pace before asserting late in the day. Barron clearly hasn’t put the gun to his horses head and he can be expected to improve with racing.
When David Barron switches his horse from the turf for them to have their first all-weather start, the results are impressive; 28/117 (24%) for £44 LSP with the horses winning 36% more often than they are entitled to based on odds. Who are the dangers? Pastime from the Gay Kelleway stable leads the market. Her gelding won a maiden last time out at Wolverhampton, but that race didn’t seem much better than the one that Black Salt scored in, and it is difficult to justify why our selection is twice the price of the Kelleway horse. Betting is all about value and Black Salt is value.
15:40 Newcastle – Replenish to win
Thursday 29th June
17:55 Newcastle – Black Salt to win
Thursday 29th June