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At first glance, there doesn’t appear to be any superstars in the 7 furlong maiden at Haydock. There are a number of once raced juveniles who are likely to step forward plenty from their debut efforts, and although there are horses with better debut form than Fabella Bere, Karl Burke’s filly may improve and make things competitive. She has been overlooked in this contest and is available at odds which seem too big. She should be much shorter and based on that value, she is the selection.
Fabrella Bere made her debut at Carlisle in a five runner field. The dogs weren’t barking as Burke’s runner went off at a big price (yard usually have the money down when their selections are fancied). The horse eventually finished third of five, beaten just over 7 lengths. Although on paper that run looks moderate (recorded an RPR of 56), there was a glimmer of promise. The ground wouldn’t have been ideal (it was pretty soft), and after a slow start, the daughter of Peer Gynt stayed on nicely under considerate riding.
Karl Burke’s runners tend to improve significantly from their first start to second; 43/198 (22%) for £119 LSP, with the horses winning 53% more often than they are entitled based on odds. Furthermore Karl Burke tends to send his good horses to Haydock second time out; 8/31 (26%) for £45 LSP, with an A/E of 2.21. Although there are a number of horses with experience who could improve, another potential dark horse in the field is R Beckett’s filly Akvavera. The unraced filly of Leroidesanimaux is from a yard who do very well with their female debutants at this time of year, and they can win at decent prices. Febella Bere is the selection though, at odds of 12/1 13.00 +1200 12.00 12.00 -0.08 with Bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral.
Daira Prince is our second selection in a race at Yarmouth that looks like a match based on the betting odds. Roger Varian’s last time out winner has a Luca Cumani last time out winner in opposition and although Cumani’s horse scored in flashier style last time, he faces very different conditions this time around and Daira Prince has already scored at the course which is a definite plus.
Daira Prince, who can be backed at 3/2 2.50 +150 1.50 1.50 -0.67 with BetVictor, ran three solid races in handicap company and was allotted a mark of 77 as a result. Connections clearly saw that mark as far from insurmountable as the horse was sent off favourite on handicap debut at Yarmouth. After racing prominently over 10 furlongs, Daira Prince showed a really willing attitude to fend off his rivals. The drop back 1 furlong shouldn’t inconvenience and he can hopefully progress through the handicap ranks this season.
Could Star Gypsy win? Well it is possible, but based on our research and despite his short odds and impressive performance last time out, it isn’t that probable. Luca Cumani 3 year olds who won last time out and have been off the track for 4 weeks or more are 17/94 (18%) for a loss of £-25. They only win 85% of the races they should do based on odds. Furthermore, the sire has a poor record on fast ground and Star Gypsy’s success last time out came on a much slower surface. Compare that with Roger Varian who does very well when his last time out winners have been off for 3-4 weeks; 13/43 (30%) for a £7 LSP.
15:30 Haydock – Fabella Bere to win
Thursday 6th July
Odds: 12/1 13.00 +1200 12.00 12.00 -0.08
16:20 Yarmouth – Daira Prince to win
Thursday 6th July
Odds: 3/2 2.50 +150 1.50 1.50 -0.67
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