Friday's NAP comes from Musselburgh racecourse.

Culloden to Grind it Out From the Front at Musselburgh

Friday's NAP comes from Musselburgh racecourse.

5.55 Newmarket – Tapdancealltheway

Tapdancealltheway is from the Amanda Perrett yard. The Perrett yard are worth following under a number of different circumstances, but particularly when she has handicap debutants. Her horse Tapdancealltheway showed some ability in her three maiden runs and she has been given a workable mark of 67 on which to start handicap life.

Tapdancealltheway might have finished second on debut, but that run was in a very modest event and despite stepping up in trip and finishing further down the field in her next two starts, the filly actually improved on RPR’s. She didn’t look in love with Lingfield or the ground last time out and from a limited sample size, her sire Nathaniel’s progeny appear to be better with some cut underfoot. Today’s conditions at racing HQ should suit. As mentioned, Perrett is a shrewd operator and she doesn’t over phase her runners in maiden company, preferring to look at the big picture.

The Newmarket based handler gives bettors a big return for their money when they follow her horses who have had three starts in maiden company before switching to handicaps on their fourth start; 22/156 (14%) for £41 LSP, with the horses scoring over 50% more often than they are entitled taking the odds into account. Is Tapdancealltheway a certainty? Not by a long shot – but she is attractively priced based on sire stats, the stable’s behaviour and the relative lack of depth in the race. The market has placed the daughter of Nathaniel in just behind the protagonists at odds of +650  with Bet365 and BetVictor and with nothing in the field looks outstanding or especially progressive, she rates a solid bet.

8.50 Musselburgh – Culloden

The last race on the card at Musselburgh may be a sprint for low grade horses, but it is a contest that features a number of in-form horses, and it looks particularly interesting. The market leader is the David C Griffiths’ trained Pearl Acclaim, but that horse is 3/53 and doesn’t particularly enjoy winning. Shaun Harris is represented by Culloden, and his son of Kyllachy is chasing a hattrick after scoring at Musselbrugh over today’s course and distance and also at Thirsk.

Culloden has had 37 lifetime starts but it wasn’t until May of 2017 that connections reached for the first-time visor. Since then, the horse had placed 3 times and won twice from 6 starts, so the headgear seems to have transformed Shaun Harris’s runner’s consistency. The horse won at Musselburgh over course and distance on penultimate start under the talented Kevin Stott and last time out connections opted to change the jockey to take advantage of Manuel Fernandez’s 7lb claim. The jockey performed admirably and the horse made all at Thirsk, winning off a mark of 60. The handicapper has been fairly lenient for that narrow success and he gets to race off 61 today.

Culloden is a front runner, and when he hits the front early, the horse does very well. From 10 runs when bagging the early advantage, Shaun Harris’ horse is 4/10 with a further 3 places. In short, he is very difficult to pass. If the horse doesn’t get the early lead, then maybe bettors should get out (he is 1/27 when having to track another horse). Shaun Harris 4 year old+ last time out winners do particularly well; 23/101 (23%) for £80 LSP. His representatives have scored nearly 60% more frequently than they are entitled to based on odds. There are not many confirmed front runners in the race so hopefully Culloden can bag the early lead and hang on at +400  with Coral and Ladbrokes.

Tips Summary

17:55 Newmarket – Tapdancealltheway to win
Friday 4th August
Odds:

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