2.30 Newcastle – Stoney Broke
Back in action and back at our favourite all-weather track in Newcastle for two selections on Saturday. The first of those runners is the James Fanshawe trained Stoney Broke. A winner on his penultimate start, it would be fair to say that Stoney Broke was somewhat underwhelming in finishing fifth last time out, however there is cause to think that the Dansili filly can return to the winner’s enclosure for her famous colours. There is competition, and the rivals have meant that although the 4-year-old is favourite, she can be backed at generous odds.
Stoney Broke has had an interrupted career. She made her debut back in September of 2015 and won at Nottingham. Was off for nearly a year, and disappointed, finishing last despite being market leader. Had another year off after that run, so something was clearly amiss. The filly ran much better at Yarmouth, finishing second and she followed that up with a victory over today’s course and distance in June. Won really easily that time, travelling smoothly before putting the race to bed – the all-weather and extra yardage clearly had a positive influence on Fanshawe’s runner’s performance. A 9lb rise in the weights seemed a little harsh for her victory and Stoney Broke didn’t perform up to standand last time out at Ascot. However, she now returned to the track where she ran with such credit, and a further step forward under ideal conditions could not be ruled out.
James Fanshawe has a fantastic record with his runners when they raced on turf last time out and switch back to the all-weather; 84/358 (23%) for £114 LSP, with his horses winning 50% more often than they should do based on odds. Furthermore, Fanshawe’s runners on artificial surfaces in June-August are also worth following in; 33/177 (19%) for £95 LSP, with the horses scoring 62% more often than they are entitled to.
Stoney Broke has to prove she is up to a mark of 82 and has clearly had her problems, but odds of +333 with Bet365 entice.
4.50 Newcastle – Cool Breeze
David Simcock has quite a trek to get his runners up from Newmarket to Newcastle and he sends three horses up on Saturday. Cool Breeze may well be his best chance of the day and this last time out winner could well rack up a sequence. The Dream Ahead filly can be backed at +225 with Bet365 and SkyBet which seems more than fair.
This 5-furlong sprint is a low grade affair. It is confined to horses rated 55 or lower, and David Simcock rarely has runners at the basement level. Cool Breeze showed next to nothing in her first handful of starts. She competed over 6/7 furlongs and didn’t look to be showing enough to have a career as a race horse. However, Simcock dropped the filly to the minimum 5 furlong trip, and it worked wonders. Initially the horse finished second, and she then went one better last time out at Yarmouth. The 3-year-old was held up off the pace, travelled well and came through smoothly to score with plenty in hand. That was off 52 and although she has been raised 4lbs, that hike should be far from insurmountable. The race features a mixture of exposed performers and 3-year olds, but Cool Breeze looks to be the horse who can go on to better things.
The stats are on the side of our selection. David Simcock’s last time out handicap winners running in another handicap next time out (class 3 or lower) are 60/200 (30%) for £48 LSP. The horses win 23% more often than they should based on odds.
14:30 Newcastle – Stoney Broke to win
Saturday 29th July
16:50 Newcastle – Cool Breeze to win
Saturday 29th July
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