Maiden handicaps are rarely are choice of race for selections, and maiden handicaps even more rarely contain runners from powerful stables such as the Marcus Tregoning and Roger Varian yards, but both we and them are bucking the trend on Tuesday at Yarmouth racecourse. Tregoning is represented by Hawkerland, a 4-year-old gelding by Sea The Stars and out of a US bred mare, and we like her chances. The bookmakers make it a match between Hawkerland and the Roger Varian trained Falak, and although he is a marginal favourite, the SBO Racing team prefer the chances of Hawkerland and we think he is value at odds of +125 with Bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral.
Hawkerland is 4 years old, but has only had 4 starts. Something wrong? Most definitely. After making his debut at Goodwood and finishing well down the field, the son of Sea The Stars was off the track for nearly 2 years before coming back at Kempton this March. The debut run was over 7 furlongs and the horse came back over 11 furlongs on the artificial surface. Was strong in the market that day but only took a minor step forward from debut effort. Switched back to the turf for a Windsor maiden and justifiably went off a big price of +5000 based on his two previous efforts, but Tregoning’s horse stepped forward significantly finishing 4th of 14, recording an RPR of 73 in the process. Stayed on well towards the end of the race, prompting the handicapper to give him a mark of 71.
There are several positives that support our bet on Hawkerland. Firstly, Tregoning kept hold of the horse for 2 years while he was out – this suggests that he sees some promise in the son of Sea The Stars, as he could have easily sold the horse etc. Secondly, he runs over 11.5 furlongs, and the way the horse stayed on at Windsor suggests he will improve for going over further. Finally, the Newmarket handler has given his horse a 50 day break, and when he has his handicappers off the track for 6+ weeks, they are very profitable; 42/232 (18%) for £59 LSP, with the horses winning 64% more often than they are entitled to based on odds.
Classified stakes races are not that common on the racing calendar. They are typically contests for lower level horses and are not normally the best betting medium – but Cookie’s Star is a standout price and has to be backed.
Cookie’s Star started her career this spring in March on the all-weather. She started over 10 furlongs and after a moderate first racecourse outing, she was stepped up to 12 furlongs. Stepped forward slightly in her next two starts, recording her best RPR of 60 on her third start. Interestingly, Philip McBride dropped the filly back to 7 furlongs for her handicap debut (initially rated 60). Expectedly got outpaced before staying on late in the day. She has been stepped back up to 1 mile which should definitely suit.
Philip McBride does very well when using 5/7lb claimers; 33/225 (15%) for £76 LSP, with an A/E of 1.37. Furthermore, they are very profitable when turned out within 8-14 days; 51/311 (16%) for £113 LSP, with the runners scoring 36% more often than they should do based on odds.
Cameron Noble is the 7lb claimer up, and he should try and keep the horse midfield/as close to the pace as possible, as Cookie’s Star may still want slightly further. She isn’t a maximum bet by any stretch of the imagination, but is definitely overpriced at +900 with BetVictor.
14:45 Yarmouth – Hawkerland to win
Tuesday 13th June
16:15 Yarmouth – Cookie’s Star to win
Tuesday 13th June