Compton Mill and Rosenbaum for Southwell success

compton

2.40 Southwell – Compton Mill

Hughie Morrison is a man to be feared at Southwell, and Hughie Morrison is a man to be feared when bringing a horse back from a break. When both of these conditions are met, Hughie Morrison is a man to be respected. His runner Compton Mill shaped with significant promise on debut run, but regressed on second start at Lingfield, which appeared too sharp a track. The horse has been given 170 days off the track and reappears in a weak race where there is only one runner who has a similar level of form (Awjab). The fact that Jimmy Fortune takes the ride is a big plus, as the experience jockey has a fantastic strikerate at the Midlands track in recent times – 16/37 (43%) in the last 10 years for a £27 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.63.

Horse was a slow starter in both efforts last term and that could have been a concern given the kickback, but the horse is drawn stall 6, so should be able to keep out of any trouble. Fortune has often opted to travel round wide in recent races and that tactic could prove effective again. If returning to debut 4th at Newmarket, he would take all the beating and is likely to be finishing the race strongly.

Awjab was with Brian Meehan and ran two solid races at the backend of last season before bombing out on the all-weather. Has switched to the Brian Ellison yard which is interesting, but is more exposed than the Morrison horse and has to give that one 2lbs.

4.25 Southwell – Rosenbaum

Charlie Appleby’s inmate had looked a shade of a monkey on handicap debut at Lingfield on penultimate run. Wearing the first time blinkers he hung and consented to run on at the finish after it was all over. A closer look at that run actually suggested the trip was inadequate and next time out at Wolverhampton, stepped up to 12f, he duly delivered, taking it up at the top of the straight and showing a willing attitude to fight off all rivals. Was a well backed favourite that day and has only been raised 5lbs. Unexposed at the trip and breeding suggests that the son of Dubawi should appreciate the fibresand surface at Southwell – his sire’s record of 28 winners from 102 runners is nothing to be sniffed at. A small field should suit and this one is likely to race prominently to test main market rival Siren’s Cove’s stamina.

Siren’s Cove beat another Appleby runner last time at Chelmsford over 10f. Stepping up in trip that day, she improved as her breeding suggested she should. The Sir Percy filly takes another 2f hike up in distance today and is likely to encounter a slower pace, so she has to show her ability to handle different conditions. Also has to give 6lbs to the selection (when jockey claim is taken into consideration).

Rosenbaum could be on an upwards curve and yard are in fantastic form.

Tips Summary

Compton Mill Win – 2.40 Southwell – +110  – PaddyPower

Rosenbaum Win – 4.25 Southwell – +138  – BetVictor

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