2.20 Doncaster – Lightning Moon
After winning all 3 of his starts last year, big things were expected of Lightning Moon this year. The son of Shamardal has failed to deliver this season, but he has been tried at the highest level and has had his sights lowered considerably this time out, dropping to Listed level.
Lightning Moon returned to York back in May in a Group 2 contest, and went off favourite. That run was on good ground which was probably a little quick, but he finished a relatively close up 7th of 15, not disgracing himself. Stepped up to 7 furlongs next time out, which did not suit as the horse didn’t appear to stay. Was dropped back in trip to 6 furlongs for the Group 1 Champion Sprint Stakes at Ascot and didn’t cut much ice. Has clearly had some sort of issue and wears the first time tongue tie which should help Ed Walker’s 4 year old significantly, and the competition is much less taxing this time around.
A good pace will suit and is likely to track the leaders before going for home late in the day. +400 seems a good price.
7.10 Chelmsford – Commanche Chieftain
Going in to his run at Wolverhampton last month, Commanche Chieftain was 0/9 and hadn’t offered too much hope that he would win a race. However on the 20th October something had clearly changed, as the son of Broken Vow went off a well backed favourite and made all to win by a neck. Raced off an official mark of just 63 and has gone up a paltry 2lbs for that success. Now that he has broken his duck, there is potential for Michael Appleby’s runner to progress up the handicap scale.
The improvement that was forthcoming from Commanche Chieftain could definitely be as a result in the switch to the all-weather. The horse has American breeding on both sides and his bloodline screams that artificial surfaces are preferable. On top of the change in surface, the addition of cheek pieces and switch to front running tactics definitely had an impact on the horse’s performance.
Commanche Chieftain has stall 2 and is likely to be ridden from the front again under Shane Kelly. As he only races off 65, the 3 year old gelding is still eligible for Class 6 company, and this race looks weak. At odds of +333 , he looks good value.
Tips Summary (7th November)
7.10 Chelmsford – Commanche Chieftain – +333 WilliamHill
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