2.00 Newton Abbott – Charlie Rascal
A rare foray into the National Hunt code for us on Wednesday with the Neil Mulholland trained Charlie Rascal. The son of Myboycharlie makes his second start over hurdles and he aims to make it back to back victories over timber for his very shrewd trainer. Neil Mulholland acquired the horse from Peter Chapple-Hyam and it must have been satisfying for the Wiltshere based trainer to have his runner score on the first start for the stable and he has a fantastic chance of following up.
It is fair to say that Charlie Rascal was a disappointing horse on the flat. The 3-year-old finished out of the places in his first five starts on turf and he was subsequently gelded and stepped up from 8 furlongs to 12. Ran twice over that distance and it didn’t help the horse at all, so Chapple-Hyam got rid. Neil Mulholland is a bit of a wizard at revitalising horses and there was just shy of two months between his last run on the flat and his debut for the Mulholland yard. Charlie Rascal ran at Newton Abbott on his first start over hurdles, doing plenty wrong during the race (pulled hard and wasn’t particularly fluent at a number of flights), but he showed a good attitude and won more comfortably than the ¾ length margin suggests. The rider never had to go for the whip and if he can improve his jumping, the horse could do well under this new code.
The current odds are generous at +300 with Bet365 and BetVictor, and that is due to the presence of the Dan Skelton trained The Raven Master. Skelton’s runners always warrant respect, but his form in his solitary start over hurdles is slightly below that of Charlie Rascal.
Neil Mulholland does have a very good record with his non-chasers who compete towards the back end of the flat season and the start of the National Hunt season; 82/307 (27%) for £55 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.33. Charlie Rascal has to carry a penalty but he could be good enough to defy it.
7.40 Kempton – Amenta
The second of our selections comes on the all-weather at Kempton and we like the chances of the Roger Charlton trained Amenta at +350 with Ladbrokes. She doesn’t have the best form in the field but is a potential improver this year.
Amenta made her debut at Kempton (tonight’s track) over 6 furlongs last November. Market expectations were not high as she went off at odds of 101 and ran accordingly. The betting signals were a little more positive on her first run back this season and she finished second of five over 7 furlongs at Chepstow. The horse took a keen hold and perhaps on her first start back of the year, the soft ground over a stiff 7 furlongs was a little too far. The 7 furlongs at Kempton isn’t that testing and it should be the perfect trip.
Roger Charlton’s runners off for 120+ days last time out and are off for 21+ days next time are very profitable; 42/173 (24%) for £24 LSP, with the horses scoring nearly 60% more often than they should do based on odds. Out of this group of results, one thing that was obvious was that the fancied horses are well worth following.
14:00 Newton Abbot – Charlie Rascal to win
Wednesday 16th August
19:40 Kempton – Amenta
Wednesday 16th August