Chantecler a calculated bet at Kempton

2015-05-20

6.10 Kempton – Chantecler

The first selection comes at Kempton in an apprentice rider’s race. Hughie Morrison sends relatively unexposed Chantecler over 11f for his seasonal reappearance, and although the race looks competitive for the grade, it is one that he looks overpriced for at odds of 4/1 5.00 +400 4.00 4.00 -0.25 .

Has been off the track for 247 days, but won last time out over 12f at Wolverhampton. Pulled clear with rival when last seen and showed a willing attitude. Only concern is that the horse will maybe want further in time, but the long home straight should bring out his stamina. Hughie Morrison handicap runners off for 90+ days, returning in March-May, and 14/1 15.00 +1400 14.00 14.00 -0.07 or shorter do very well; 50/216 (23.15%) for £95.19 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.41.

The main competition comes from Gary Moore’s Third Strike who has won 4 on the bounce. Has been given a mini break and could still be well handicapped, but despite racking up a sequence, hasn’t looked without his quirks. Inclined to pull a little bit and is stepping up in trip, so if stamina becomes a factor, could potentially be outstayed.

6.40 Kempton – Saumur

The 6.40 Kempton has a nice each way look about it, with an odds on favourite and a number of no-hopers.

Saumur could be the each way play. Horse has shown just limited ability on two starts but could well improve plenty this year. Sire was 0/38 as a 2 year old, but is 5/22 with a further 5 places with his 3 year olds so far. Furthermore, Denis Coakley runners returning in March-May, off for 90+ days are 14/78 (17.95%) for £38.38 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.66. Pedigree has stamina in it, and should improve for the stiffer 7f.

Available at odds of 6/1 7.00 +600 6.00 6.00 -0.17 and should make the frame. Favourite is the Ed Dunlop trained Tajathub, a once raced colt who showed good form at Lingfield. Will be tricky to beat, but Dunlop favourites are not always the best value.

Tips Summary (20th May)

6.10 Kempton – Chantecler Win – 4/1 5.00 +400 4.00 4.00 -0.25 – BetVictor, PaddyPower

6.40 Kempton – Saumur EW – 6/1 7.00 +600 6.00 6.00 -0.17 – Bet365, PaddyPower