Cautiously Optimistic to Give Punters a Positive Result

2nd-sept

2.00 Lingfield – Cautious Optimism

Here at SBO Racing, we don’t normally place too much confidence in William Muir runners, but his 2 year old Showcasing colt Cautious Optimism provides us with just that. After showing fair form in two starts, he deserves to be the market leader, and should be a tough nut to crack.

Cautious Optimism went off an unfancied 26.0 shot on debut at Ffos Las, but showed clear signs of ability, finishing a close up third of nine. He stepped up on that effort on second run at Nottingham, beaten by a short head over 6 furlongs on easy ground. Led that day and showed a gritty attitude, just nailed on the line. The ground at Lingfield is heavy and his ability to handle the ground and front running style will stand him in good stead. Has stall 4, whilst market rival Bochart is drawn out wider in two.

Bochart has an official rating of 79 but has had plenty of runs, and the ground has to be a concern. Has mainly been confined to fast ground and is untried on these contrasting conditions. Another fast runner who likes to lead, Charlie Appleby’s runner looks like he might be better back at 5 furlongs. He is passed over.

2.50 Bath – Kazziana

Kazziana may be favourite for the 10 furlong fillies’ handicap at Bath, but even at odds of +138 she represents great value. The twice raced daughter of Shamardal won in eye-catching fashion last time out, and she appears to making her handicap debut off a very favourable mark of 77.

Charlie Appleby rarely has his horses wound up first time out, but Kazziana was well fancied on debut at Nottingham, going off as a joint favourite. She showed up well for a way, but as the pace quickened, she looked a little lost and eventually finished third. Stepped up markedly on that run second time out at Kempton where she dropped back 2 furlongs to the mile. Went off odds on for that run so the yard clearly think something of the filly, and she justified market support by bolting up by just shy of 4 lengths. Looked a lot more professional second time up, and although the field wasn’t fantastic, it was the manner of her success that impressed. Has been allotted a handicap rating of 77 which seems far from harsh, and her appeal is heightened by the fact that jockey Kevin Stott is able to claim a further 3lbs. Assuming Kazziana handles the step back up in trip, she should win and could be 10lbs ahead of her mark.

Sir Michael Stoute saddles the second favourite, Moonlight Sonata. After three solid runs, she broke her duck at the fourth time of asking in a reasonable contest at Lingfield. Appeared to appreciate the step up to 12 furlongs that day, so the drop back to 10f not sure to be ideal, and with the allowance taken into account, she has to give the selection 6lbs. Isn’t totally discounted, but isn’t the value.

Tips Summary (2nd September)

2.00 Lingfield – Cautious Optimism – +200  Bet365, PaddyPower, BetVictor

2.50 Bath – Kazziana – +138  Bet365, WilliamHill, Ladbrokes, PaddyPower

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