Ripon put on a cracking card on Saturday and there are some really competitive races for bettors to get their teeth stuck into. There are a couple of standout bets on the day that look to provide some value and will hopefully give us a profit on the day. The first of those runners is the Karl Burke trained Capla Dancer. An unexpected winner on debut, the 2 year old Red Jazz filly should come on from her racecourse debut.
Karl Burke is a shrewd trainer who knows the time of day in the betting ring, so the fact that Capla Dancer went off at huge odds on debut implies that the yard left plenty to work on. Despite the weakness in the market and the horse running green, she showed bundles of promise and early speed and won with a bit more in hand than the bare margin suggests. There were a multitude of positives that can be taken from the race; a. the horse has already handled the undulations of Ripon as the success came over today’s course and distance and b. Karl Burke has a fantastic record with his second time out 2 year olds, they tend to improve a tonne and are 40/197 (20%) for £112 LSP at the second time of asking, winning 50% more often than the odds imply the should.
There are a couple of unraced runners in opposition that have attracted early market support, not least the Richard Fahey trained Faradays Spark, but Capla Dancer has the benefit of racecourse experience and course experience. She has stall 1 which could be considered a negative, however this filly has the early pace to negate that draw and should have the requisite speed to cut across and gain an advantageous early position. She looks like more of a +250 – +300 chance to us at SBO Racing and as such, odds of +400 with BetVictor are value.
The second of our selections is the David Brown trained, John Fretwell owned Dubai’s Secret. The 4 year old Paco’s Boy gelding makes his seasonal reappearance and appeals as a progressive type this season. He is currently available at odds of +600 with Ladbrokes and William Hill and should be competitive.
Dubai’s Secret is making his first start for David Brown on Saturday. After racing for the Richard Hannon yard for the last two seasons, the horse was sold out of the yard for 26,000 guineas to John Fretwell and was moved to his resident trainer Brown. The latter named has become known as a shrewd trainer and he could unlock some further improvement from the 4 year old gelding. Dubai’s Secret signed off last season with a victory and a second place at Newbury and Newmarket, recording form figures of 88 and 90 in the process. He was subsequently gelded and has been off the track since last July. Is this absence likely to be a problem? Not from the David Brown yard. Brown’s runners off for 8+ weeks and returning in January-April do very well; 17/72 (24%) for an LSP of £47, with the horses winning 82% more often than they should based on odds.
Dubai’s Secret won on his seasonal reappearance last year at Leicester, so Brown’s runner can clearly go well fresh. The horse is quite versatile, and can be ridden just off the pace or can be held up further back. From stall 11, the horse is likely to drop in and although you don’t want to be too far back at Ripon, he has a turn of foot which can get him out of trouble.
14:10 Ripon – Capla Dancer to win
Saturday 29th April
14:45 Ripon – Dubai’s Secret to win
Saturday 29th April
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