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2.40 York – Belle D’or
In a high class Group 2 contest over 10f, John Gosden’s 4 year old Belle D’or looks to be overpriced.
Making her seasonal reappearance at Newmarket, the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro ran a race full of promise, eventually finishing third. She shaped as though that run would be beneficial fitness wise, and much more can be expected this time around. John Gosden won this race in 2012 with Izzi Top, and that filly also ran in the same race as Belle D’or at Newmarket, so it is clear that there is she is well regarded and is following the same path.
John Gosden has a fantastic record with his 4 year olds; 50/214 (23.36%) for an LSP of £128.76, producing an A/E of 1.41. He rarely keeps his females in training unless they are highly talented.
The favourite Bragging also looks to have a bright future. She was ahead of the selection last time out but there is good cause to think that the increased yardage will bring the runners closer together this time. Furthermore Belle D’or didn’t get the clearest of passages through and she shaped as though a flat galloping track may suit better.
At the odds, Belle D’or looks a fair each-way play at 6/1 7.00 +600 6.00 6.00 -0.17 in a competitive race
7.25 Newmarket – Sur Empire
In what looks to be a fair and competitive maiden, Sur Empire could be worth an each way bet at odds of 7.50. This once raced filly is brought to racing HQ by Middleham trainer Mark Johnston. She showed plenty of promise on sole run at Lingfield, and there is cause to think she will be much better second time up.
Mark Johnston’s 3 year olds who have been off for 90+ days and are having their second start have a very good record; 27/96 (28.13%) for £40.65 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.46. The horse in the race with standout form claims is Hundi, but she may not have progressed and could be flattered by rating.
Tips Summary (14th May)
7.25 Newmarket – Sur Empire – 15/2 8.50 +750 7.50 7.50 -0.13 – Bet365