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4.25 Warwick – Long Lunch
Charlie Longsdon is a man to be followed at this time of year. He gets his horses fitter than most other trainers and strikes while the iron is hot during the early part of the National Hunt season. Will you make a profit by backing his horses blindly in September-November? Yes. But with that being said, it is always best to be a little selective, and Long Lunch is a horse of Longsdon’s who has a very good chance. He was last seen 157 days ago, but most of the field are returning from absences and the trainer has shown on plenty of occasions that he can get them ready after a break. Long Lunch can be backed at odds of 6/1 7.00 +600 6.00 6.00 -0.17 with Bet365 and Ladbrokes.
Long Lunch has had a slightly inconsistent profile, but the horse showed his best form when running over 3 miles. The horse did best when finishing a nose second at Doncaster last December and he didn’t reach those heights after that, falling in the Grand National.
Charlie Longsdon horses off for 120+ days returning between September-December are very profitable; 92/372 (25%) for £158 LSP, with the horses scoring 30% more frequently than they are entitled to based on odds. Long Lunch should have enjoyed the break and gets the good ground he goes well on. He rates a solid bet.
6.15 Chelmsford – Beautiful Memory
It seems as though there have been a shortage of Saeed Bin Suroor all-weather maiden runners in recent times, but there are a few of them at Chelmsford on Thursday night, and Beautiful Memory may just be the pick of the runners. The horse is making her second start after performing well when finishing third at Leicester on debut. The ground is likely to have been too soft that day, and with the experience under her belt and the switch of surface likely to suit, she should be very difficult to beat. The combination of Ryan Moore on a John Gosden horse has ensured that our selection is available at a decent price, and odds of 5/2 3.50 +250 2.50 2.50 -0.40 with Coral, Bet365 and Ladbrokes should be snapped up.
Beautiful Memory was fairly prominent in the betting on debut at Leicester but she ended up drifting quite significantly, suggesting that she may come on significantly for the run. Despite the negative market vibes, the daughter of Invincible Spirit showed up well for a long way before being headed in the final furlong. That experience will have done her the world of good and perhaps Leicester on good to soft ground was a little testing for this one on debut. The switch to the all-weather will suit and Saeed Bin Suroor has an awesome record when his horses switch from the turf to the all-weather for the first time; 117/322 (36%) for £85 LSP, giving an A/E of 1.30.
16:25 Warwick – Long Lunch to win
Thursday 5th October
Odds: 6/1 7.00 +600 6.00 6.00 -0.17
18:15 Chelmsford – Beautiful Memory to win
Thursday 5th October
Odds: 5/2 3.50 +250 2.50 2.50 -0.40
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